Market scan
Jul 21, 2026
Tier mix
- MEDIUM2
- WATCH8
- ADVISORY9
- DROP3
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 2 |
| WATCH | 8 |
| ADVISORY | 9 |
| DROP | 3 |
Directional book
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
PLNT
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10dHELD OI_FADE short, starter opened 07-20, close ~flat at $55.08. Build stalled but not reversed; fundamentals CAUTION unchanged. HOLD, tighten watch, do not add.
- Invalidation
- Cover on ANY of: (1) 5d net call-OI build fully unwinds (STALLED tonight at +750 daily print after two big prints, rel 5d build still 0.79x - NOT reversed, clause not triggered), (2) close reclaims the pre-build breakout level, (3) a 3rd consecutive post-print PT raise / fresh Buy upgrade (would flip CAUTION toward contradiction - re-run fundamentals-gate).
- OI build STALLED (07-21 daily print collapsed to +750) - not reversed, but momentum behind the short thesis is cooling; tighten watch
- New securities class-action filing (07-21) is incremental short support, partially offsetting the stall
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityPASS
PASS - last close $55.08 (07-21), ~$88M 20d $-ADV (thinnest cushion of the OI_FADE book, still clears floor)
clusterPASS
PASS - Consumer Cyclical, no other Consumer Cyclical OI_FADE survivor sized tonight
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION (hold) - no 3rd post-print PT raise / upgrade found (the named hard invalidation trigger); new securities class-action filing (07-21) is incremental short support; insider MSPR +33 is small-dollar/routine, not a strong contradiction
event riskPASS
PASS - ER 2026-08-11 (revised), outside h10
TECH
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10dCleanest CONFIRM in tonight's OI_FADE pool (best regime_fit, no fundamentals contradiction, ER outside window) but capped to starter rather than half because the entry itself is overbought - a bounded, stop-able risk, not the uncontainable squeeze/binary tails that floor FIG and QGEN to watch.
- Entry / trigger
- New starter short. Entry at next session (2026-07-22) open or on continued persistence of the 5d net call-OI build. Conditional anchor: SPY close 07-21.
- Invalidation
- Cover on ANY of: (1) 5-day net call-OI build fully unwinds (5d-net crosses <=0), (2) close makes a NEW 52-week high (the overbought-entry risk resolving against the short), (3) RBC or another sell-side desk reverses the downgrade / issues a PT raise (re-run fundamentals-gate).
- RSI 74.3, only -0.7% off the 52w high - shorting directly into active upward momentum; the single biggest risk to this name specifically
- Adjacent-sector to QGEN (life-sci tools vs diagnostics) - if QGEN is ever promoted off watch, re-run the correlation-cluster gate before sizing both
- P/E 103 on -16% EPS growth is a real valuation risk but this supports rather than threatens the short
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE; CHOP half-cap ceiling non-binding (starter already below half)
liquidityPASS
PASS - last close $71.63, ~$586.6M 20d $-ADV (panel-verified via data/prices.parquet, 20d window through 07-17); well clear of the $5 / $50M C12 floor
clusterPASS
PASS (with note) - Bio-Techne is adjacent-sector (life-sci tools) to QGEN (diagnostics), tonight's only other healthcare-adjacent OI_FADE name; QGEN is held at WATCH (not sized) tonight so no double-exposure and no cluster collapse required. Re-check if QGEN is ever sized alongside TECH.
fundamentalsNOTE
CONFIRM - mixed earnings, insider selling (MSPR -25), RBC downgrade to Sector Perform, P/E 103 against -16% EPS growth. All corroborate the short thesis; no contradiction found.
event riskPASS
PASS - ER 2026-08-11, outside the h10 window
AAPL
ADVISORYLonglaneMOM_LONG10dMOM_LONG near-52w-high basket, regime_fit 0.70 (constructive but not decisive in CHOP); basket/tail-only per lane design, not sized as any single name tonight.
- Invalidation
- Not sized as a single name - MOM_LONG only expresses as a diversified basket/tail position, never per-name HIGH.
- Tail-driven mean (+2.35%) means most individual members underperform the mean; concentrating in one name defeats the basket's own edge structure
- 53% earnings-in-window across the basket is a structural feature of a long-only near-52w-high universe in late July, not a name-specific risk
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE; not a short so the crash-gate zero-out does not apply, but basket sizing rule still binds
liquidityPASS
PASS (mega-cap, not independently re-verified name-by-name tonight)
clusterN/A
N/A - basket-diversified by design; no single-name cluster collapse needed
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; basket-only lane never reaches per-name fundamentals sizing
event riskNOTE
CAUTION - 53% of the 261-name basket carries earnings inside h10 (AAPL itself 07-30); basket exposure, not a per-name veto
CECO
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5dHigh-PCR fade-long candidate (sentiment-contrarian, S4); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only.
- Advisory lane only. Rising-IV tilt feature not built tonight (07-21) - no additional tilt signal available.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S4 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S4 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskPASS
PASS - no earnings flagged in window
CNM
ADVISORYShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dMOM_SHORT near-52w-low candidate; Cleanest CONFIRM-quality MOM_SHORT candidate: 0.94% below 52w-low, no earnings in window, clean liquidity. Held at watch/advisory per the standing lane cap, not started.
- Invalidation
- Not sized (lane-capped). Would be first in line for starter promotion if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc.
- Cleanest CONFIRM-quality MOM_SHORT candidate: 0.94% below 52w-low, no earnings in window, clean liquidity.
- Lane-wide provisional cap overrides any per-name conviction - see 2026-07-18 calibration audit.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE tonight, but lane-capped regardless of regime
liquidityPASS
PASS - $109M ADV
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated MOM_SHORT pair flagged among tonight's top-5
fundamentalsNOTE
CONFIRM
event riskPASS
PASS - no earnings flagged inside h10
EXPE
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool sell-side one-sided concentration (validated long-tilted side of S2); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only. Would need a same-day-news-clean confirmation and an earnings-free h-window before any promotion.
- Advisory lane only - never promoted past watch without an explicit lane-threshold change clearing the regression gate.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S2 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S2 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskNOTE
NOT checked tonight - per gate 5/tail-cap, veto on any h-window earnings if this is ever promoted
NYT
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5dHigh-PCR fade-long candidate (sentiment-contrarian, S4); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only.
- Advisory lane only. Rising-IV tilt feature not built tonight (07-21) - no additional tilt signal available.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S4 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S4 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskPASS
PASS - no earnings flagged in window
ORCL
ADVISORYShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dHELD MOM_SHORT short, entry $131.54 (07-13), close $127.05 (07-21), gross +3.41%. Invalidation not triggered. HOLD, carry forward, no incremental adds (lane-capped).
- Invalidation
- Cover on RSI reclaiming >45 AND close > $144.22 (both required). Close 07-21 $127.05 is $17.17 (13.5%) below the price clause - NOT triggered despite today's +4.67% adverse move.
- Today's +4.67% adverse move reads as a QQQ-beta tech bounce, not an idiosyncratic reversal - invalidation clause still far off but the gap narrowed materially
- No new starter sizing available under the lane cap even if conviction were to increase
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityPASS
PASS - mega-cap, ~$5.7B 20d $-ADV
clusterPASS
PASS - Technology, standalone
fundamentalsN/A
NA - no fresh rating-action catalyst found tonight; day reads as a QQQ-beta bounce (+4.67% adverse) not a fundamentals event
event riskPASS
PASS - ER 2026-09-08, outside horizon
PPL
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5dHigh-PCR fade-long candidate (sentiment-contrarian, S4); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only.
- Advisory lane only. Rising-IV tilt feature not built tonight (07-21) - no additional tilt signal available.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S4 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S4 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskPASS
PASS - no earnings flagged in window
RY
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool sell-side one-sided concentration (validated long-tilted side of S2); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only. Would need a same-day-news-clean confirmation and an earnings-free h-window before any promotion.
- Advisory lane only - never promoted past watch without an explicit lane-threshold change clearing the regression gate.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S2 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S2 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskNOTE
NOT checked tonight - per gate 5/tail-cap, veto on any h-window earnings if this is ever promoted
TD
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool sell-side one-sided concentration (validated long-tilted side of S2); advisory watch only.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory only. Would need a same-day-news-clean confirmation and an earnings-free h-window before any promotion.
- Advisory lane only - never promoted past watch without an explicit lane-threshold change clearing the regression gate.
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
NOT independently re-verified tonight
clusterPASS
PASS - no correlated S2 pair flagged
fundamentalsN/A
NA - not spawned; S2 is advisory-only lane, no per-name fundamentals-gate run tonight
event riskNOTE
NOT checked tonight - per gate 5/tail-cap, veto on any h-window earnings if this is ever promoted
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only, 0 directional points.
SPY
vol_0dtesell premium- Vol state
- negative gamma, vol-amplifying but less negative than 07-20; no-vol-shock sample into event week
- Net expectancy
- 0.169
0DTE-VRP premium sale, FULL SIZE - VRP fair, no gate tripped
QQQ
vol_0dtesell premium- Vol state
- negative gamma; VRP -0.04 (IV cheap vs realized), worst sampled day -2.45%
0DTE-VRP premium sale, HALF SIZE ONLY - lean conservative, IV-cheap-vs-realized and negative gamma both argue against full size into event week
NOW
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-22, IVR 100, implied move 10.5%, wing-width 2.19x implied
- Implied move
- 10.50%
Defined-risk wide-wing short strangle/iron condor, wings beyond 2.19x implied move, small size, net-of-cost
TXN
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-22, IVR 93.2, implied move 8.2%, wing-width 2.12x implied
- Implied move
- 8.20%
Defined-risk wide-wing short strangle/iron condor, wings beyond 2.12x implied move, small size, net-of-cost
INTC
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-23, IVR 98.8, implied move 10.9%, wing-width 1.75x implied
- Implied move
- 10.90%
Defined-risk wide-wing short strangle/iron condor, wings beyond 1.75x implied move, small size, net-of-cost
CHTR
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-24, IVR 94, implied move 10.5%, wing-width 2.62x implied
- Implied move
- 10.50%
Defined-risk wide-wing short strangle/iron condor, wings beyond 2.62x implied move, small size, net-of-cost
MSFT
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-29 (AMC, FOMC day), IVR 97.6, implied move 2.8%, wing-width 1.38x implied
- Implied move
- 2.80%
Classic iron fly, small size, net-of-cost - flagged for FOMC-day overlap, re-confirm 1-2 sessions pre-print
Stand aside Prints same day as FOMC - macro-driven vol could swamp the earnings-specific IV crush; re-verify closer to the print before sizing
META
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-29 (AMC, FOMC day), IVR 89.6, implied move 3.1%, wing-width 1.40x implied
- Implied move
- 3.10%
Classic iron fly, small size, net-of-cost - flagged for FOMC-day overlap, re-confirm 1-2 sessions pre-print
Stand aside Prints same day as FOMC - macro-driven vol could swamp the earnings-specific IV crush; re-verify closer to the print before sizing
Watch / stood-down
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEKE | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - basket fill-in note only. |
| CPRT | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized (lane-capped). Would be first in line for starter promotion if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc. |
| FIG | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized. Re-check only if short float / days-to-cover materially cool (squeeze-list de-listing, SI drops well below 30%) AND the OI build persists. |
| LOPE | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized (lane-capped). Would be first in line for starter promotion if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc. |
| MCD | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized (lane-capped). Would be first in line for starter promotion if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc. |
| PSKY | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized (lane-capped). Would be first in line for starter promotion if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc. |
| QGEN | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized. Re-check only once the M&A rumor is confirmed dead (official denial, bidders walk) or resolved (deal announced, position moot either way). |
| VSH | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - basket fill-in note only. |
| CFG | DROP | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - lane-excluded while fundamentals actively contradict the crowding thesis. Re-admit only if a forward fundamentals-gate re-check flips VETO to CAUTION or better. |
| CRBG | DROP | S4_pcr_fade | Long | Not sized - merger-vote-informed PCR is not a clean contrarian-fade signal. |
| KHC | DROP | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - lane-excluded while fundamentals actively contradict the crowding thesis. Re-admit only if a forward fundamentals-gate re-check flips VETO to CAUTION or better. |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
Lane glossary (7)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
- vol_0dte
- Vol book — 0DTE variance-risk-premium premium-selling. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
- vol_earnings
- Vol book — sells volatility into an earnings IV-crush. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP (mild bullish tilt, narrow leadership) · vol-state = short-gamma / vol-amplifying but compressing (VIX 17.05, −8.6% d; SPY GEX NEGATIVE, zero-γ 759.2 vs spot 748.2; QQQ GEX NEGATIVE, zero-γ 741.9 vs spot 708.8 — deep short-γ) · breadth divergent (fz 45.5% green, uw bullish-flow only 37.5% on a green tape) ·
directional_tradable = TRUE·s1_standdown = FALSE - SPY 748.28 reclaimed both 20DMA (745.0) and 50DMA (744.9) on a clean reversal candle off Mon's 742.09, but ret5 −0.47% / ret10 +0.08% keep it mechanically in CHOP, not UPTREND. QQQ 708.97 (+1.86% d) still below both DMAs — the bounce is a narrow tech/comms-led, earnings-positioning move ahead of GOOGL/TSLA, not a broad risk-on flip. The sub-50% green tape under a green index is a mild distribution tell.
- Bottom line: ONE new sized directional name (TECH, OI_FADE short, starter), plus held-book management (ORCL HOLD, PLNT HOLD/tighten-watch). Everything else watch or drop. The most robust lane (OI-fade) produced five clean, persistent, non-mega-cap-beta candidates — but fundamentals VETOed two (KHC, CFG) and uncontainable tails floored two more to watch (FIG 42.4% short-float squeeze; QGEN live takeover rumor). The entire MOM_SHORT lane remains on the 2026-07-18 audit's provisional watch-only cap (s1_standdown=FALSE does not lift it). A correct, thin, common output for this tape.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | Horizon | validated_excess (prior) | regime_fit | invalidation | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TECH (Bio-Techne) | OI_FADE | short | h10 | +2.07% med / +0.88% mean (n=640) | 0.80 | new 52w-high / RSI reclaims >75 with close >high; OR 5d net call-OI build reverses (<0); OR ER 08-11 approaches | liq ✓ (~$599M ADV) · fundamentals CONFIRM (insider selling −25 MSPR, RBC downgrade, P/E 103 on −16% EPS) · ER 08-11 OUT of h10 · tail-cap: half→starter for overbought entry (RSI 74.3, −0.7% off 52w high) |
Only TECH clears a real size. FIG and QGEN fell to watch on tail grounds; KHC/CFG dropped on VETO — see Watch / Stood-down.
Held-position reconciliation (carried from 2026-07-20 conviction)#
| Ticker | Lane | Entry | Close 07-21 | Day | Gross P&L | State | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | MOM_SHORT short | @131.54 (07-13) | 127.05 | +4.67% (adverse) | +3.41% | inval $144.22 far ($17.17 / 13.5% cushion); ER 09-08 outside; today = QQQ-beta bounce, no rating catalyst | HOLD — carried forward |
| PLNT | OI_FADE short | ~55.2 (07-20, verify fill) | 55.08 | −0.31% | ~flat (+0.3%) | OI build stalled (07-21 print +750) but not reversed; no 3rd PT-raise (hard inval not fired); new 07-21 class-action = incremental short support | HOLD, tighten watch, no add |
ORCL gave back part of Monday's +7.7% on the tech bounce but stays green and nowhere near invalidation. PLNT's crowded-call catalyst has stopped building — hold, do not add, cut if the 5d net build crosses ≤0 or a 3rd PT-raise/upgrade prints.
⚠ PLNT entry-price fill needs broker confirmation — some upstream agents anchored to the stale $52.36 (07-17 truth-set close) rather than the ~$55.2 sizing price on 07-20. If the actual fill differs, re-mark P&L before acting.
Vol Book (non-directional, delta-neutral, advisory)#
- Earnings IV-crush SELL-VOL (this week): fat-tail wide-wing (≥1.3× implied) defined-risk on NOW (07-22, IVR 100, implied 10.5%, 2.19× backwardation), TXN (07-22, 93.2, 8.2%, 2.12×), INTC (07-23, 98.8, 10.9%, 1.75×), CHTR (07-24, 94, 10.5%, 2.62×) — small size, these blow through narrow wings. Classic iron flies on MSFT + META (both 07-29, IVR 97.6/89.6, 2.8–3.1% implied) — but both print on FOMC day (07-29), macro-overlay realized-vol risk noted. Rejected: GOOGL/AMZN/AAPL (IVR <80), TSLA (IVR 35.5 — backwardation without rank-richness is not a sellable crush).
- 0DTE-VRP: SPY GO, full size (net-of-cost +0.169%/day, VRP fair, 93% win-open). QQQ GO, half size, lean conservative (VRP −0.04 = IV cheap vs realized, worst day −2.45%, both indices negative-gamma). GO is a floor from a no-vol-shock sample — re-run each AM into the 07-29/30 FOMC+PCE+Mag7 stack; a rising-VIX or front-backwardated open on those days is a stand-aside.
Watch / Stood-down#
- FIG (OI_FADE) — cleanest OI-fade persistence in the pool (+160k, all 5 days), but 42.4% short float / 4.0 days-to-cover + fresh BofA Buy/$30 PT (+37%) + squeeze-watch-list membership = uncontainable short-covering gap tail. Gate-6 floored to watch (not merely −1 tier). Re-admit only if SI% compresses or the build accelerates with price follow-through.
- QGEN (OI_FADE) — miss-streak corroborates the short, but live EQT/KKR/Advent takeover rumor (~$50 bids floated vs $40.53, +23% implied premium) = binary gap-UP tail. Watch until the rumor resolves or a defined-risk-through structure is proposed.
- KHC (OI_FADE) — DROPPED (fundamentals VETO: 4/4 beat streak + insider buying MSPR +20 + Disney-alliance headline; 2-of-3 legs contradict the short). ROST-07-20 precedent.
- CFG (OI_FADE) — DROPPED (fundamentals VETO: 4/4 beat + rev +62.7% / EPS +37% + 5-firm analyst PT-raise cluster in 4 days + regional-bank-rally narrative).
- CNM (MOM_SHORT) — cleanest CONFIRM short (0.94% below 52w-low, ER none, clean fundamentals) but the whole MOM_SHORT lane is capped watch-only per the 2026-07-18 audit pending a DURABLE-N (≥30) forward-positive re-validation. First promotion candidate when the lane clears. Cohort: MCD (IV maxed 98.5 — avoid overpaying puts), PSKY/LOPE (ER 07-30), CPRT.
- MOM_LONG (near-52w-high) — basket/tail-only (261 names, 53% with earnings in h10), regime_fit 0.70; never a single-name HIGH. AAPL is the mega-cap basket rep (ER 07-30). Not promoted.
- S2 liquidity-reversion — advisory (regime_fit 0.60, long-tilted). Validated (long) side: EXPE / RY / TD (sell-side concentration). Short-side buy-concentration tags (ABT/SPG/FAST) are the weaker non-validated direction. Not sized.
- S4 sentiment-contrarian — advisory (regime_fit 0.65). Cleanest high-PCR fade-longs: NYT (28.9), CECO (20.2), PPL (17.4), no earnings in window. Rising-IV tilt N/A (feature not built for 07-21; VIX −8.6% thins it). CRBG rejected (merger-vote-informed PCR). Not sized.
Risk#
- Correlation cluster (gate 3): TECH and QGEN are adjacent life-sci-tools / diagnostics names — since QGEN is watch-only, no collapse required tonight; flagged for if QGEN is ever promoted alongside TECH.
- Event stack inside h10: GOOGL/TSLA 07-22 AMC, FOMC 07-29, MSFT/META 07-29 AMC, PCE 07-30, AAPL/AMZN 07-30 AMC. Any h10 short opened this week spans FOMC/PCE — TECH (ER 08-11) clears earnings but still holds through the 07-29/30 macro stack; sized as a starter partly for that. NFP ~08-07 just outside the window — flag next scan.
- Tail caps applied: TECH half→starter (overbought entry, bounded via new-high inval); FIG floored to watch (42.4% SI, unbounded squeeze); QGEN floored to watch (takeover gap-up, unbounded). ORCL/PLNT held at existing size, no adds.
- Regression gate: NOT triggered — no lane or threshold change tonight; all sizing follows the standing 2026-07-18 calibration-audit rules. The one-off discretionary tail-caps (TECH half→starter; FIG/QGEN→watch) are per-name judgment, not new standing rules — they'd need
python3 scripts/retro_harness.py --allgreen before becoming lane policy.
Data & provenance#
- Panel: full UW export for 2026-07-21 (bot-eod / dp-eod / chain-oi-changes / stock-screener / hot-chains). Truth-set edge 2026-07-17 (used for validated-excess priors + last-known liquidity reference only).
data/prices.parquetstale through 07-17 — thechore/extend-truthset-panelbranch hasscripts/truthset/build_prices.pymid-extension (END bumped to 07-18); worth finishing. - Files:
decision.json(envelope v2, 22 calls, schema-validated) ·conviction_2026-07-21.json(held-position reconciliation + watch shortlist + orchestrator flags).