Market scan
Jul 22, 2026
Tier mix
- MEDIUM2
- WATCH1
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 2 |
| WATCH | 1 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
ORCL
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dNear-52w-low MOM_SHORT, held since 07-13, working +4.33% gross / +0.83% today's short-excess (ORCL -0.95% vs SPY -0.12%). No gate change tonight -- HOLD.
- Entry / trigger
- Continuing hold since 2026-07-13 entry ($131.54). No new entry/trigger tonight -- maintenance only.
- Invalidation
- Cover on RSI14>45 AND close>$144.22 (currently RSI~35.1, close $125.84 -- NOT triggered).
- FOMC 07-29 / PCE 07-30 broad macro vol could whipsaw the tech tape even without a name-specific catalyst.
- Lane provisionally capped for NEW starters -- this hold cannot be added to under current policy.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE; CHOP does not trigger the crash zero-out; MOM_SHORT lane cap does not touch existing holds.
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $125.84, ~$4.97B 20d $-ADV (verified live via data/prices.parquet), far clear of the C12 floor.
clusterPASS
PASS -- Technology sector; 60-day realized corr vs PLNT -0.015, vs TECH -0.020 (computed from data/prices.parquet) -- no cluster.
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- no change reported tonight; last verdict at entry stands.
event riskPASS
PASS -- next ER 2026-09-08, well outside h10; FOMC/PCE are broad-tape vol only for this name, not a name-specific binary.
PLNT
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10dOI_FADE short, working +2.08% gross. Fundamentals CAUTION is a real but not-yet-fired soft risk; class-action + still-net-building OI keep the thesis intact. HOLD, no add.
- Entry / trigger
- Continuing hold since 2026-07-20 entry ($55.20). No new entry/trigger tonight -- maintenance only, watch tightened given CAUTION.
- Invalidation
- Cover on 5d net-call-OI build reversing to a negative print (hard trigger -- NOT fired, still +395 today, decelerating only) OR a 2nd confirmed analyst PT raise beyond the 07-20 Canaccord move (soft trigger, monitor closely).
- OI build decelerating (weakest print of the window) -- thesis softening, not yet reversed.
- One PT raise away from the named soft-invalidation trigger.
- ER 08-05 sits close to (just past) the h10 boundary -- reassess event-risk gate next session if still open.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- CHOP in-regime for OI_FADE (regime_fit 0.80).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $54.05, ~$89.5M 20d $-ADV (verified live), clears $50M floor.
clusterPASS
PASS -- Consumer Cyclical; 60-day realized corr vs ORCL -0.015, vs TECH -0.156 (computed) -- no cluster.
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION(-1) -- 4/4 beat vs a lowered bar, one PT raise (Canaccord $80->$82, reads as 2nd-not-yet-confirmed-3rd) is a soft contradiction; but NEW securities class-action (07-21) and dollar-trivial insider buying keep the short thesis net-supported. Hold, do not add.
event riskPASS
PASS (monitor) -- ER 2026-08-05 sits ~2 sessions past the ~08-03 h10 boundary from the 07-20 entry -- outside window but close; re-check if still open into ER week.
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only, 0 directional points.
INTC
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-23, IV-rank 98.9, 10.6% implied move, backwardation confirmed (front/far 1.43)
- Implied move
- 10.60%
Defined-risk wide-wing iron fly / short strangle, net-of-cost, small size -- cleanest IV-crush admit tonight (liquid, tight weekly spreads)
TMO
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-23, IV-rank 98.7, 5.0% implied move, backwardation confirmed (front/far 2.41)
- Implied move
- 5.00%
Defined-risk wide-wing iron fly, net-of-cost, small size -- clean but thinner edge (smaller implied move)
SAP
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-23, IV-rank 100, 7.1% implied move, backwardation confirmed (front/far 2.44)
- Implied move
- 7.10%
Defined-risk wide-wing iron fly, net-of-cost, small size -- ADR, verify live bid/ask spread before sizing
MSFT
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-29 (AMC, FOMC day), IV-rank 98.3, 2.4% implied move, backwardation confirmed
- Implied move
- 2.40%
Very wide iron fly, small size, net-of-cost -- thin edge; size for cost drag, not the headline number
Stand aside Prints same day as FOMC 07-29 -- macro vol could swamp the earnings-specific IV crush; re-verify closer to print before sizing.
SPY
vol_0dtebuy premium- Vol state
- index VRP FAIR (+0.0001), LOW VIX tercile
Stand aside Flat SPY VRP + LOW VIX tercile = thinnest edge in the sample; gross win-rate looks fine but no defensible net-of-cost edge. Stand aside.
QQQ
vol_0dtebuy premium- Vol state
- index VRP negative (-0.0323), front-end IV 1.58x VIX (backwardation)
Stand aside Negative QQQ VRP with front-end backwardation left-tail gate tripped -- codified stand-aside. Stand aside.
Watch / stood-down
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FHN | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized. Re-score after FOMC (07-29) / PCE (07-30) resolve AND fundamentals move off CAUTION (target cuts stop) AND/OR pct-of-52w-range retreats from the 87.6% breakout zone. If the OI build extends through event week without reversal and fundamentals firm, re-evaluate for starter under lane cap math. |
| TECH | DROP | OI_FADE | Short | Named hard trigger was close > $72.16 (new 52w high) -- NOT technically fired (close $71.78, $0.38 below) but the entry catalyst (fresh 5d call-OI build) has independently decayed; closing now rather than risking a coinflip stop-out. |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
Lane glossary (4)
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- vol_earnings
- Vol book — sells volatility into an earnings IV-crush. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
- vol_0dte
- Vol book — 0DTE variance-risk-premium premium-selling. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP · VIX 16.64 (contango/calm, VIX9D 14.88 < VIX 16.64 < VIX3M 19.54) · short-gamma (vol-amplifying, 2nd-moment only) · breadth ~48.9% green (neutral) ·
directional_tradable=true ·s1_standdown=FALSE - SPY ret5 −0.98% / ret10 +0.27% (inside the ±1.5% CHOP band). 2026-07-21's broad tech bounce stalled but did not reverse (QQQ −0.51%, SPY −0.12% today). Defensive/energy rotation under the surface — XLE +4.8%/+6.5% (5d/10d) leads; XLC/XLY lag. Options flow skewed bearish (UW bullish_pct 33.8%) against an SMA-uptrend = mild distribution tell.
- Tier-1 event risk INSIDE h10: FOMC 07-29 + PCE 07-30. Any short opened tonight (window → ~08-05) carries both.
- Bottom line: No NEW sized directional edge tonight. The one clean fresh signal (FHN) is floored to WATCH by a compounding CAUTION + FOMC/PCE + near-highs-tail stack. Maintain the held book, cut one decayed starter. This is the modal, correct output.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | Horizon | validated_excess | regime_fit | invalidation | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | MOM_SHORT | short | h10 | +0.81% / +9.5pp | 0.55 | RSI>45 AND close>$144.22 (RSI 35.1, $125.84 — not close) | working +4.33% gross; lane cap blocks new starters, not maintenance |
| PLNT | OI_FADE | short | h10 | +2.07% med / hit 0.61 | 0.80 | 5d net-call-OI negative print (not fired, +395) OR 2nd PT raise | working +2.08%; fund. CAUTION(−1), no add, tighten watch |
| TECH | OI_FADE | short | h10 | +2.07% med | 0.80 | new 52w high >$72.16 (not fired, $0.38 below) | thesis decayed (OI rel 0.419) + pinned at 98.7% range; proactive cover 07-23 |
| FHN | OI_FADE | short | h10 | +2.07% med / +0.88% mean | 0.80 | re-score after FOMC/PCE + off-CAUTION + off near-highs | CAUTION(−1) + event(−1) + 87.6%-range tail all compound → floored |
New starters tonight: 0. No name cleared the gate stack for a fresh size.
Vol Book (non-directional, net-of-cost, delta-neutral — advisory)#
- Earnings IV-crush SELL-VOL (07-23 prints, IV-rank 98+, backwardation confirmed): INTC (10.6% implied, 1.43 backwardation, liquid — cleanest), TMO (5.0%, thinner edge), SAP (7.1%, ADR — verify spread). MSFT (07-29, 2.4% implied) admit but thin + FOMC-day overlap → wide wings, re-confirm pre-print.
- 0DTE-VRP: STAND ASIDE both — SPY VRP flat (+0.0001) in the LOW VIX tercile (thinnest edge); QQQ VRP negative (−0.0323) + front-end backwardation left-tail gate tripped.
Watch / Stood-down#
- OI_FADE clean alternates (advisory): TEL (ER already fired 07-22 AM, resolved; very liquid $470M ADV; but weak 1.11× build), PVH (ER 08-25; 11% SF/4.46 DTC), GPC (ER 10-20; $263M; clean).
- OI_FADE tail-blocked (watch): FIG (42.4% SF / 4.0 DTC squeeze; OI build still cleanest/most-persistent, +6919 today), QGEN (EQT/KKR/Advent takeover-rumor gap tail UNVERIFIED live; OI signal fading, +44 today).
- MOM_SHORT lane-capped watch: PEGA now the cleanest promotion candidate (−9.32% below 52w low, ER 10-20, clean) — first in line once the lane clears a DURABLE-N≥30 forward re-validation via
/calibration-audit. CNM dropped out (recovered to +2.94% above low). - MOM_LONG basket (tail-only, never per-name): 76 names, rotated tech→financials (JPM/BAC/GS/RY/TD near highs), zero ER in h10, regime_fit 0.70.
- S2 (advisory): NTNX (98.7% one-sided sell), EMN, TD, FORM top of 26 qualified. EXPE dropped (76.5%, fails ≥90% extreme).
- S4 (advisory): JBL (PCR 13.26, ER 09-24, IV-rank rising). NYT dropped (PCR collapsed to 0.906, liquidity dried).
Risk#
- Correlation: held shorts pairwise 60-day corr all ≈0 (ORCL/PLNT −0.015, ORCL/TECH −0.020, PLNT/TECH −0.156). No cluster. FHN has no truth-set history — quantitative corr uncomputable (data gap; non-material since unsized).
- Event calendar: FOMC 07-29 + PCE 07-30 both inside h10 — the binding constraint on any new multi-day short and the primary reason FHN stays unsized (rate-sensitive bank). NFP 08-07 just outside the window.
- Tail caps applied: FHN near-highs breakout tail (87.6% range); TECH decaying-thesis + new-high-stop proximity → cut. No squeeze/M&A tails in the sized book.
- Data notes: truth-set panel (
data/prices.parquet) stale @ 2026-07-17 — all OI/liquidity/52w metrics computed from the FRESH UW panel (2026-07-22) and live Yahoo chart closes, not the stale parquet.build_prices.pyis mid-extension on this branch to close the gap. TECH ER-date discrepancy logged (UW 08-05 vs Finnhub 08-11; both outside h10 from the 07-21 entry).
Regression gate: NOT triggered — no lane or threshold change tonight. All sizing followed the standing 2026-07-18 calibration-audit rules (MOM_SHORT advisory/watch-only cap, S2/S4 advisory-only, excess-as-currency, no additive confluence).