Market scan
Jul 20, 2026
Tier mix
- MEDIUM1
- WATCH17
- ADVISORY6
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 1 |
| WATCH | 17 |
| ADVISORY | 6 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
PLNT
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10dOI_FADE short: persistent 5d net call-OI build, and the fundamentals CAUTION here is more corroborating (guidance cut) than contradicting (unlike ROST/FIG). The only name in tonight's book clearing a real (non-watch) size.
- Entry / trigger
- New starter short. Entry at next session (2026-07-21) open, or intraday on continued persistence of the 5-day net call-OI build. Conditional anchor: SPY 742.09 (2026-07-20).
- Invalidation
- Cover on ANY of: (1) 5-day net call-OI build fully unwinds (5d-net crosses <=0 - the lane's standard signal-exit), (2) close reclaims and sustains above the pre-build breakout level, (3) a third consecutive post-print PT raise / a fresh upgrade to Buy would flip the mixed-caution read toward a genuine contradiction (re-run fundamentals-gate if so).
- Guidance-cut is real support for the short, but the stock has already drawn two PT raises post-print - a squeeze can develop even against a fundamentally-corroborated short
- Thinnest liquidity cushion of tonight's survivors (~$88M 20d $-ADV, ~77% over the $50M floor) - size accordingly, avoid adding into illiquid tape
- Only a starter clip - CAUTION already applied a -1 tier from what the raw signal (median +2.07%, hit 0.61 vs 0.41, n=640) alone would support
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityPASS
PASS - last close $52.36 (07-17), ~$88.3M 20d $-ADV; cleared upstream C12 floor (thinnest cushion of tonight's OI_FADE survivors, ~77% over the $50M floor)
clusterPASS
PASS - Consumer Cyclical. Shares a sector tag with the VETOed/DROPped ROST, but ROST is out of the book entirely so no double-exposure; no other Consumer Cyclical OI_FADE survivor tonight.
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION - beat 4/4 + insider buying + strong growth, BUT beat-and-LOWER guidance actively supports the short thesis; two post-print PT raises are a squeeze-risk offset. Mixed, not a clean contradiction -> -1 tier, sized small rather than watch-only.
event riskPASS
PASS - no earnings flagged inside the h10 window
BNY
ADVISORYShortlaneS2_dp_revert5dS2 dark-pool liquidity-reversion conditioning tag (short-tilted). Advisory representative.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory DP one-sided concentration (short-tilted) conditioning tag.
- S2 IC~=0 in this evidence base; do not rank or size beyond watch
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
cleared upstream C12 floor per Phase B/C (BNY not present in the local truth-set panel slice checked tonight)
clusterNOTE
NOT EVALUATED - advisory conditioning list
fundamentalsNOTE
NOT SPAWNED - not about to be sized
event riskNOTE
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED tonight - apply the h5 earnings-anywhere-in-window veto before any promotion
CL
ADVISORYShortlaneS2_dp_revert5dS2 dark-pool liquidity-reversion conditioning tag (short-tilted). Advisory representative.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory DP one-sided concentration (short-tilted) conditioning tag.
- S2 IC~=0 in this evidence base; do not rank or size beyond watch
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
cleared upstream C12 floor per Phase B/C (CL not present in the local truth-set panel slice checked tonight)
clusterNOTE
NOT EVALUATED - advisory conditioning list
fundamentalsNOTE
NOT SPAWNED - not about to be sized
event riskNOTE
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED tonight - apply the h5 earnings-anywhere-in-window veto before any promotion
CPRI
ADVISORYShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dThe single cleanest CONFIRM short in tonight's scan by fundamentals, but MOM_SHORT is lane-capped to advisory/watch only per the 07-18 calibration audit - held at watch, not started.
- Invalidation
- Not sized (lane-capped). Would be the first name promoted to starter if/when MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N (>=30) forward-positive-excess window via /calibration-audit - do not promote ad hoc.
- The lane itself was 0-for-9 / -5.3% excess in the first matured forward window (2026-07-18 audit) - even the cleanest fundamentals confirm in the basket does not exempt a single name from the lane-wide provisional cap
- D/E 4.46 is a real leverage/credit-spread risk on top of the momentum-crash tail risk generic to this lane
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE; MOM_SHORT live but lane-capped (see tail_cap)
liquidityNOTE
cleared upstream C12 floor per Phase B/C (CPRI not present in the local truth-set panel slice checked tonight - flag for data-team follow-up)
clusterPASS
PASS - Consumer Cyclical (apparel/luxury); distinct sub-industry from LOW (home-improvement retail) and MCD (restaurants) also in tonight's basket - no measured pairwise corr, treated as standalone
fundamentalsNOTE
CONFIRM - revenue -21.8%, operating margin 0.66%, no insider support (MSPR +0.98), two analyst PT cuts. Cleanest short in the scan; D/E 4.46 carried as a credit-spread flag, not a squeeze-risk flag.
event riskPASS
PASS (not independently re-checked tonight; no earnings flagged in the Phase B brief)
SHOP
ADVISORYShortlaneS2_dp_revert5dS2 dark-pool liquidity-reversion conditioning tag (short-tilted). Advisory representative.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory DP one-sided concentration (short-tilted) conditioning tag. Representative of the S2 short-side names tonight.
- S2 IC~=0 in this evidence base; do not rank or size beyond watch
- Confirm no earnings anywhere inside the h5 window before any promotion (the IBM leak from the 07-18 audit was exactly this failure mode)
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityPASS
PASS - last close $123.56 (07-17), ~$990.7M 20d $-ADV
clusterNOTE
NOT EVALUATED - advisory conditioning list, not a sized cohort
fundamentalsNOTE
NOT SPAWNED - not about to be sized; advisory lane only
event riskNOTE
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED tonight - apply the h5 earnings-anywhere-in-window veto before any promotion (post-07-18-audit fix, not just T+3)
SPG
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dS2 dark-pool liquidity-reversion conditioning tag (long-tilted). Advisory representative.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory DP one-sided concentration (long-tilted) conditioning tag.
- S2 IC~=0 in this evidence base; do not rank or size beyond watch
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityNOTE
cleared upstream C12 floor per Phase B/C (SPG not present in the local truth-set panel slice checked tonight)
clusterNOTE
NOT EVALUATED - advisory conditioning list
fundamentalsNOTE
NOT SPAWNED - not about to be sized
event riskNOTE
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED tonight - apply the h5 earnings-anywhere-in-window veto before any promotion
VST
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dS2 dark-pool liquidity-reversion conditioning tag (long-tilted). Advisory representative.
- Invalidation
- Not sized - advisory DP one-sided concentration (long-tilted) conditioning tag.
- S2 IC~=0 in this evidence base; do not rank or size beyond watch
- A long-tilted lane in a soft-risk-off CHOP tape is exactly where the 0.7x regime discount bites hardest
regime crashPASS
PASS - s1_standdown FALSE
liquidityPASS
PASS - last close $155.44 (07-17), ~$699.9M 20d $-ADV
clusterNOTE
NOT EVALUATED - advisory conditioning list
fundamentalsNOTE
NOT SPAWNED - not about to be sized
event riskNOTE
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED tonight - apply the h5 earnings-anywhere-in-window veto before any promotion
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only, 0 directional points.
SPY
vol_0dtesell premium- Vol state
- short-gamma / FULLY_NEGATIVE GEX (~-$1.94B), VIX 18.65 (+24% 7d), term structure still contango (not yet backwardated)
- Net expectancy
- 0.160
0DTE-VRP premium sale, standard size - no gate tripped tonight
QQQ
vol_0dtesell premium- Vol state
- short-gamma / FULLY_NEGATIVE GEX (~-$701M), front-end backwardation caution, on the wrong side of the 30d VRP curve
0DTE-VRP premium sale, HALF SIZE ONLY - fragile setup, not a full stand-down
TXN
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-22 - IV-crush candidate
WATCH-AND-CONFIRM (2d out) - re-verify IV-rank/kink integrity 1 session pre-print before sizing a defined-risk short strangle/iron condor net-of-cost
Stand aside ADVISORY only tonight - no calibrated net-of-cost figure yet
NOW
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-22 - IV-crush candidate
WATCH-AND-CONFIRM (2d out) - re-verify IV-rank/kink integrity 1 session pre-print before sizing a defined-risk short strangle/iron condor net-of-cost
Stand aside ADVISORY only tonight - no calibrated net-of-cost figure yet
INTC
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-23, IV rank 100 - cleanest IV-crush setup this week
- Implied move
- 11.56%
WATCH-AND-CONFIRM (3d out) - if confirmed: wide short strangle/iron condor with wings beyond the ~11.56% implied move, defined-risk, half-cap, net-of-cost
Stand aside ADVISORY only tonight - re-verify IV-rank/kink integrity 1-2 sessions pre-print; no calibrated net-of-cost backtest in repo
CHTR
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- earnings 2026-07-24 - IV-crush candidate
WATCH-AND-CONFIRM (4d out) - too early to structure; monitor IV-rank build
Stand aside ADVISORY only tonight - furthest out of the batch, no structure yet
Watch / stood-down
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNM | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| CPRT | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| CRNX | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - CRNX is simultaneously tagged near-52w-high (MOM_LONG cohort, bullish) AND a heavy call-OI build (OI_FADE, bearish-fade). Per the no-additive-confluence invariant, conflicting lanes are never summed or netted into a directional call - this resolves to WATCH with explicitly NO conviction either way, not a diluted small size in either direction. |
| DINO | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - watch-only pending the 07-28 earnings print (either clear it or restructure as defined-risk-through-print before considering entry), and pending the CEO-reshuffle/sector-tailwind narrative cooling. |
| ECHO | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| EQPT | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only, weak/ambiguous signal. |
| ESAB | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| FIG | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - watch-only pending the squeeze risk cooling (no further PT raises / no fresh Buy re-rates for 1-2 sessions) or the insider-selling signal strengthening (would corroborate the short and could justify minimum starter size). |
| GPOR | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. |
| HONA | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| KTOS | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket/cluster note only. |
| LOW | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. |
| MCD | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. |
| ORCL | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. RECONCILIATION FLAG: ORCL was a HELD MOM_SHORT starter position as of the 2026-07-17 scan (entered 07-13 @ $131.54, running excess +3.12% on 07-17). No 07-18/07-19 scan exists (weekend) and tonight's Phase A-C brief does not carry entry/exit state forward. If that position is still open in the live book, it needs separate position-management re-underwriting (against the now-live MOM_SHORT lane cap) rather than being treated as a fresh candidate - flagged to the orchestrator, not resolved here. |
| PEP | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. |
| QXO | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized (lane-capped + cluster representative). Re-evaluate with the rest of the Industrials cluster if MOM_SHORT clears a DURABLE-N re-validation. |
| STWD | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | Not sized - basket note only. |
| ROST | DROP | OI_FADE | Short | Not sized - lane-excluded while the fundamentals actively contradict the crowding thesis (beat streak, insider buying, Zacks #1, active store growth). Re-admit to the OI_FADE universe only if a forward fundamentals-gate re-check flips VETO to CAUTION or better (e.g. estimates roll over, insider buying stops, beat streak breaks). |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
Lane glossary (5)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- vol_0dte
- Vol book — 0DTE variance-risk-premium premium-selling. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
- vol_earnings
- Vol book — sells volatility into an earnings IV-crush. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP (soft, leaning risk-off) · vol-state = short-gamma / rising-vol (VIX 18.65, +24% in 7d; SPY GEX ≈ −$1.94B, QQQ GEX ≈ −$701M, both FULLY_NEGATIVE) · breadth weak (32.6% green, 338 dec / 164 adv) ·
directional_tradable = TRUE·s1_standdown = FALSE - SPY 742.09 — gapped up, faded all session, closed near the low below Friday and below both 20/50DMA (a failed-rally / distribution candle, not a rebound). QQQ in a confirmed downtrend (ret10 −3.70%), leading the tape down. This is a genuine risk-off CHOP, not the stealth-grind-up "CHOP" that burned the shorts in the last forward window.
- Bottom line: no high-conviction directional edge tonight. ONE marginal new starter (PLNT, OI_FADE short, small end), plus held-book management (ORCL hold, ICE exit, MAT cut). The most robust lane (OI-fade) produced clean names, but fundamentals knocked them all down (ROST VETO, FIG squeeze-watch, PLNT/DINO caution), and the entire MOM_SHORT lane remains on the 2026-07-18 audit's provisional watch-only cap. Mostly a watch list — a correct, common output for this tape.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | Horizon | validated_excess (prior) | regime_fit | invalidation | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLNT | OI_FADE | short | h10 | +2.07% med / +0.88% mean (n=640) | ~0.5, −1 CAUTION | 5d net call-OI build unwinds (≤0), or close reclaims pre-build breakout, or a 3rd post-print PT raise | liq-floor ✓ · fundamentals CAUTION (beat-and-lower supports short; PT-raise squeeze risk) · no ER in window (08-05) · OI-fade sizing kept per audit |
Only PLNT clears a real size. All other candidates below fell to watch/drop — see Watch / Stood-down.
Held-position reconciliation (carried from 2026-07-17 conviction)#
| Ticker | Lane | Entry | Close 07-20 | Gross P&L | State | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | MOM_SHORT short | @131.54 (07-13) | 121.38 (−3.98% d) | +7.7% | working; inval $144.22 far; ER 09-08 | HOLD — carried forward |
| ICE | OI_FADE short | @137.67 (07-13) | 141.57 (+1.37% d) | −2.8% | build unwound (5d net +1.4k, was net-negative 07-14→17); ER 07-30 inside window | EXIT / cover |
| MAT | OI_FADE short | @13.33 (07-10) | 14.14 | −6.1% | signal decaying (today −349); stop $16.50 far; ER 08-04 | CUT / TRIM on decay |
ICE is the clean exit: the crowded-call catalyst dissipated without price follow-through, and holding an OI-fade short through the 07-30 earnings print is the S2/IBM earnings-gate lesson.
Vol Book (non-directional, delta-neutral, advisory)#
- Earnings IV-crush SELL-VOL (this week): INTC (07-23, IVR 100, implied move 11.56%, term-structure backwardation 1.62×), CHTR (07-24, 2.13×), TXN (07-22), NOW (07-22) — all confirmed genuine event-kinks, wide-wing iron flies only (8–19% implied moves run over narrow structures). KLAC/CDNS next. Mag-7 (MSFT/META 07-29, AAPL/AMZN 07-30) building term-structure backwardation but IVR not yet at admission bar / outside the ~7d window — re-screen Tue/Wed, do not size yet.
- 0DTE-VRP: SPY GO, net-of-cost +0.16%/day, standard size, no gate tripped — thin but real. QQQ fragile: net +0.27%/day on paper but front-end-backwardation caution (half-sized) AND on the wrong side of the 30d VRP (vol cheap vs realized). Thin, standard-size-only, no scale-up night into FOMC/PCE week; SPY is the cleaner sell if choosing one. The 0DTE validation sample contains no vol-shock day — treat GO as a floor, not a promise.
Watch / Stood-down#
- FIG (OI_FADE) — cleanest OI-fade persistence, but CAUTION + on a public "squeeze-watch / bears love to hate" list with fresh Buy re-rates (BofA $30 PT). Squeeze risk is the exact failure mode of a crowded-call fade → watch, not sized.
- DINO (OI_FADE) — high persistence but earnings 07-28 inside h10 + refining sector tailwind (Hormuz/crack spreads) → event-capped to watch.
- ROST (OI_FADE) — DROPPED (fundamentals VETO: insider buying +35.5 MSPR, beat streak, ROE 38%, 47 new stores, Zacks #1 — strong bullish contradiction to a short).
- CRNX — cross-lane conflict (near-52w-high MOM_LONG tag vs OI_FADE short tag) → explicitly no conviction, watch.
- CPRI (MOM_SHORT) — cleanest CONFIRM short in the scan (rev −21.8%, no insider support, PT cuts), but the whole MOM_SHORT lane is provisionally capped to advisory/watch per the 2026-07-18 audit. First promotion candidate when the lane clears a DURABLE-N (≥30) forward-positive re-validation.
- QXO + Industrials cluster (CNM/HONA/KTOS/CPRT/ESAB/ECHO) — MOM_SHORT near-52w-low basket, collapsed to one cluster and capped to watch. QXO carries CAUTION (strongest insider buying of the cohort = squeeze risk) offset by misses + a regulatory probe.
- MOM_LONG (near-52w-high) — basket/tail-only, regime_fit 0.25 (unfavorable in risk-off) → not promoted, no single names.
- S2 liquidity-reversion — advisory only (long-tilted, 0.7× regime discount → ~+0.33%, IC≈0). SHOP/BNY/CL (short-side prints), VST/SPG (long-side). Not sized.
- S4 sentiment-contrarian — EMPTY (only SKHY qualified; rejected as informed: IPO vol + earnings 07-29).
Risk#
- Event cluster inside h10: FOMC 07-29, PCE 07-30, MSFT/META 07-30 AMC, AAPL/AMZN 07-31, TSLA/GOOGL 07-22 — any h10 short opened this week spans FOMC/PCE. PLNT (ER 08-05) clears it; ICE (ER 07-30) does not → part of the exit rationale. NFP 08-07 just outside the window — flag next scan.
- Correlation clusters: MOM_SHORT skews Industrials (7 of 15) — collapsed to one position. OI-fade had Basic-Materials + Consumer-Cyclical clusters 3–4 deep — moot tonight since only PLNT sized.
- Tail caps applied: OI-fade sized for the crowded-call-squeeze tail (PLNT starter only, at the small end); MOM_SHORT provisional watch-cap (momentum-crash + quiet-grind-up guard); vol-short quoted net-of-cost with the unsampled left-tail caveat.
- Yellow flag (surfaced, not overridden): OI_FADE forward excess was −3.04% in CHOP (n=18) in the 2026-07-18 audit — but that window was a mislabeled risk-on grind-up; tonight's CHOP is genuinely risk-off and the SPY-momentum standdown does not fire (SPY ret5 −0.95%, ret10 −1.22%). PLNT starter is within policy but deliberately small.
- Hedge note: short-gamma dealers both indices amplify realized moves; VIX rising into a triple-catalyst week (FOMC + PCE + Mag-7). Net book is 1 new small starter short + 1 working held short (ORCL) — low gross, no index hedge required at this exposure.