Market scan
Jun 24, 2026
schemav2.0calls13
Tier mix
- MEDIUM4
- WATCH7
- ADVISORY1
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 4 |
| WATCH | 7 |
| ADVISORY | 1 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
5 calls
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
CG
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor / risk-on rally in alts
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit0.90fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
alt-asset managers (CG/HLNE) → sized ONCE
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: rate-sensitive, levered to AUM marks
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-08-04 — outside h10
CME
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor / market V-rebound
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit0.90fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
exchange (single)
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: durable franchise, tactical fade
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-07-22 — outside h10
FXI
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor / China stimulus V-rebound
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit0.90
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
China complex (FXI/BABA/XPEV; YINN 3x-ETF dropped) → sized ONCE
fundamentalsN/A
NA (ETF)
event riskNOTE
no_op
NVDA
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10d- Invalidation
- 5d call-OI build reverses / breaks out on real catalyst
validated excess+0.88% (n=640)regime fit1.00fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
megacap-tech OI-fade cluster (NVDA/MSFT/AMZN/META/NFLX/TSLA/GOOGL) → sized ONCE
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: strong underlying → tactical OI-fade only
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-08-26 — outside h10
WMG
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5d- Invalidation
- put-heavy turns out informed (gap down on news)
validated excess+0.71% (n=331)regime fit0.50
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
S4 advisory cohort — never sized
fundamentalsN/A
NA
event riskNOTE
no_op
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only.
No vol-book entries in this scan.
Watch / stood-down
8
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | airlines basket loses 52w-high breakouts / oil spike / demand scare |
| ALKS | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | basket loses 52w-high breakouts / sharp risk-off |
| MARA | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | OI build reverses / BTC rips |
| MSFT | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | part of megacap-tech OI-fade basket |
| MSTR | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | reclaims 52w-low anchor 92.28 / BTC V-rebound |
| NEE | WATCH | S2_dp_revert | Long | news/earnings emerges; concentration not repeated next session |
| PLTR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | OI build reverses / breaks out |
| YINN | DROP | MOM_SHORT | Short | n/a — not a tradable momentum short |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
6
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
NVDAFXICMECGAALMARA
Lane glossary (5)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
Scoring currency = excess-vs-SPY (conditional), never raw win-rate.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP · ret5 −2.28% (mild risk-off) · ret10 −0.52% (flat) · breadth 54% green · vol-state: mild risk-off, balanced breadth (dry-run proxy; GEX/DEX not queried)
directional_tradable: true·s1_standdown: false— matchesretro_harness.py --date 2026-06-24exactly. ✓- Bottom line: a tradable-but-modest short day. Unlike 06-25 (a tech gap-down you couldn't chase), the OI-fade mega-caps here are only flat-to-slightly-down (NVDA −0.5%, AMZN +0.1%, META −0.8%) → clean short entries, and the 5-day tape is mildly risk-off. 4 sized shorts (1 half + 3 starter), clustered. The notable long-side story is a clean airlines breakout (AAL/UAL/DAL/JETS to 52w highs) — but MOM_LONG is basket/tail-only, so it stays watch, never sized.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | H | validated_excess | regime_fit | tier | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | OI_FADE | short | 10 | +0.0088 (hit−base +0.205, n=640) | 1.0 | MEDIUM | megacap-tech cluster → once; clean entry (−0.5%); ER 08-26 outside h10; CAUTION |
| FXI | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 (hit−base +0.095) | 0.9 | MEDIUM | China complex → once (YINN 3×-ETF dropped); clean −1.4% |
| CME | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 | 0.9 | MEDIUM | exchange single; ER 07-22 outside h10; CAUTION |
| CG | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 | 0.9 | MEDIUM | alt-managers cluster (CG/HLNE) → once; rate-sensitive CAUTION |
The discipline:
- Clean entries, so we size — the OI-fade mega-cap names aren't gapped down, so initiating the short isn't chasing (the lesson 06-25 enforced). NVDA leads at half (most robust lane, cleanest entry).
- No additive confluence. PLTR fires in both MOM_SHORT and OI_FADE (both short) → noted as evidence diversification, not summed → WATCH (−2.7%). No direction conflicts today (no name long in one lane and short in another).
- Correlation-cluster collapse: megacap-tech OI-fade → 1 (via NVDA); China → 1 (via FXI); alt-managers → 1 (via CG). Crypto/meme (MARA/GME/MSTR) held watch.
- Issue-type floor: leveraged ETFs YINN (China 3×), PLTU (PLTR 2×), PTIR dropped.
- Half-cap, no auto-full (invariant #4).
Vol Book (non-directional)#
- None flagged in dry-run. Note SLV −7.1% (silver) is a sharp single-name macro-ETF move, not an earnings event. Mega-cap earnings cluster is late-July → outside h10.
Watch / Stood-down#
- MOM_LONG AIRLINES basket (AAL +8.1 / UAL +7.4 / DAL +4.5 / JETS +4.2 / RHP +4.5) — the cleanest long thematic of the week (travel breakout to 52w highs). Basket WATCH only, never sized per-name; AAL ER 07-23 is inside h10 → event-capped anyway.
- MOM_LONG biotech basket (ABSI +36% [M&A, not momentum] / DFTX +16.4 / EWTX +8.9 / VCYT / ROIV / ALKS) — many are news-pops, not clean momentum → watch.
- Too extended to chase (short-lane): MSTR (−9.3%), CBRS (−19.6%), STRC (−7.4%).
- Cluster members / dual-lane held watch: MSFT (via NVDA), PLTR (dual-lane), BABA/XPEV (via FXI), HLNE (via CG), MARA (crypto).
- S2 defensive longs (NEE/VICI/MRK/CI/GWW/APD) — news-gated rotation, watch.
- S4_pcr_fade (WMG/ESI/TTEK/…) — advisory only, never sized.
Risk#
- Rotation theme persists: airlines + biotech bid to 52w highs while mega-cap tech fades on heavy call-OI — the same tech-soft / broad-OK pattern seen 06-25/06-26. The OI-fade shorts and the airlines longs are orthogonal (different factors/names) — noted, not combined into a single directional bet.
- Correlation clusters: 3 short clusters collapse ~12 raw fires into 3 representative positions + NVDA; without it the book is one "short tech + China + alts" bet.
- Event calendar: sized shorts' earnings all late-July+ (outside h10). On the long-watch side, AAL ER 07-23 sits inside h10 — a reason the airlines basket stays watch, not sized.
- Fundamentals gate: CAUTION across the sized shorts (strong/durable underlyings → tactical fades) → reinforces starter/half.
- Hedge note: net-short into a 54%-green tape; invalidations are the 52w-low reclaims / OI-build reversals / a broad V-rebound.
Generated by /market-scan for 2026-06-24. Lanes wrap the same DuckDB screener/DP/feature queries as the retro_harness reference. Outcomes unresolved (h5/h10 windows post-date the 06-26 panel edge). Envelope: decision.json (v2, schema-valid).