Market scan
Jun 23, 2026
schemav2.0calls12
Tier mix
- MEDIUM3
- WATCH7
- ADVISORY1
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 3 |
| WATCH | 7 |
| ADVISORY | 1 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
4 calls
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
DPZ
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor / consumer risk-on rebound
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit0.90fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
single (consumer-cyclical near 52w low)
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: franchise cash-flow, tactical short
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-07-20 — outside h10
FXI
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor / China stimulus V-rebound
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit1.00
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
CHINA COMPLEX (FXI/KWEB/MCHI/PDD/XPEV/LI/YUMC/TME/BABA; YINN 3x dropped) → sized ONCE — the canonical cluster (RESEARCH/50 §5.3)
fundamentalsN/A
NA (ETF)
event riskNOTE
no_op
MSFT
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10d- Invalidation
- 5d call-OI build reverses / breaks out on real catalyst
validated excess+0.88% (n=640)regime fit1.00fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
megacap-tech OI-fade cluster (MSFT/NVDA/AMZN/META/NFLX/SMCI) → sized ONCE
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: strong underlying → tactical OI-fade only
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-07-29 — outside h10
APG
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5d- Invalidation
- put-heavy turns out informed (gap down on news)
validated excess+0.71% (n=331)regime fit0.50
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
S4 advisory cohort — never sized
fundamentalsN/A
NA
event riskNOTE
no_op
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only.
No vol-book entries in this scan.
Watch / stood-down
8
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALKS | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | basket loses 52w-high breakouts / sharp risk-off |
| ALL | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | financials basket loses 52w-high breakouts / credit-spread blowout |
| BABA | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | part of China-complex short basket |
| BKNG | WATCH | S2_dp_revert | Long | news/earnings emerges; concentration not repeated next session |
| NVDA | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | part of megacap-tech OI-fade basket |
| PLTR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | OI build reverses / breaks out |
| STLA | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | reclaims 52w-low anchor / autos rebound |
| AXTX | DROP | MOM_SHORT | Short | n/a — not a tradable momentum short |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
6
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
MSFTFXIDPZALLNVDABABA
Lane glossary (5)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
Scoring currency = excess-vs-SPY (conditional), never raw win-rate.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP · ret5 −2.82% (clear risk-off) · ret10 −0.76% · breadth 44% green (softest of the week) · vol-state: broad risk-off (dry-run proxy; GEX/DEX not queried)
directional_tradable: true·s1_standdown: false— matchesretro_harness.py --date 2026-06-23exactly. ✓- Bottom line: the genuine broad risk-off day of the week — the most short-supportive. Unlike 06-25 (tech-only, breadth 64%), here breadth is 44%: the whole tape is heavy. Shorts get full regime-fit, and the OI-fade mega-caps offer the ideal entry — shorting into strength (MSFT +1.8%, AMZN +0.6% while the market is red). 3 sized shorts (1 half + 2 starter), cluster-collapsed. The standout long story: financials/insurers leading green on a red day — but MOM_LONG is basket/tail-only → watch, never sized.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | H | validated_excess | regime_fit | tier | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | OI_FADE | short | 10 | +0.0088 (hit−base +0.205, n=640) | 1.0 | MEDIUM | megacap-tech cluster → once; ideal entry — short into strength (+1.8%); ER 07-29 outside h10 |
| FXI | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 (hit−base +0.095) | 1.0 | MEDIUM | China complex → once (the canonical cluster, RESEARCH/50 §5.3); YINN 3× dropped; clean −1.8% |
| DPZ | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 | 0.9 | MEDIUM | consumer single near 52w low; ER 07-20 outside h10; CAUTION |
The discipline:
- Short into strength, not weakness. The risk-off tape + heavy call-OI on green mega-caps (MSFT +1.8%) is the textbook OI-fade entry — far better than 06-25's gap-down chase. MSFT leads at half.
- The China complex is ONE position. XPEV/PDD/MCHI/LI/YUMC/TME/KWEB/FXI/BABA all fired near 52w lows — corr ≥ 0.70 → sized once via FXI. This is the exact cluster the playbook names; without collapse the book would be a single levered China bet.
- No additive confluence. BABA and PLTR each fire in two short lanes (MOM_SHORT + OI_FADE) — noted as evidence diversification, not summed; held watch. No long/short direction conflicts today.
- Issue-type floor: AXTX (−31.9%, broken ETF, mcap≈0), YINN (China 3×), PLTU, PTIR dropped.
- Half-cap, no auto-full (invariant #4).
Vol Book (non-directional)#
- None flagged in dry-run. SLV −5.4% and SMCI −6.0% are sharp single-name moves, not earnings events. Mega-cap earnings cluster is late-July → outside h10.
Watch / Stood-down#
- MOM_LONG FINANCIALS basket (ALL +4.0 / TRV +2.0 / AON +2.3 / USB +2.3 / ZION +2.0 / UMBF / BPOP / THG) — green on a 44%-breadth red day = the week's clearest relative-strength leadership. Basket WATCH only, never sized per-name. The most important long signal on the tape.
- MOM_LONG biotech basket (ALKS/LGND/PTGX/RVMD; LABU 3× dropped) — watch.
- Too extended to chase (short-lane): STLA (−6.6%), SMCI (−6.0%), NVDA (−4.1%), NOK (−5.1%).
- Cluster members / dual-lane held watch: NVDA (via MSFT), PLTR (dual-lane), the China names PDD/XPEV/LI/YUMC/TME/MCHI/KWEB/BABA (via FXI).
- S2 longs (DIS/TMUS/BKNG/USB/COF/AON/CSX/MMM) — counter a risk-off tape → low conviction, watch.
- S4_pcr_fade (APG/EWA/BIRK/…) — advisory only, never sized.
Risk#
- The tell of the week: financials leading and tech fading on heavy call-OI across 06-23→26 is a coherent rotation — defensive/value bid, mega-cap growth distributed. The OI-fade shorts and the financials longs are orthogonal (different factors/names) — noted, never combined into one directional bet.
- Correlation clusters: China → 1 (via FXI), megacap-tech → 1 (via MSFT); the financials longs are also one cluster (basket, unsized). Cluster-collapse is doing the heavy lifting on a day when 30+ names fired.
- Event calendar: sized names' earnings all outside h10 (MSFT 07-29, DPZ 07-20, China ER late-Aug). No Tier-1 macro pulled for dry-run.
- Fundamentals gate: CAUTION across the sized shorts (durable underlyings → tactical fades) → reinforces half/starter.
- Hedge note: net-short into the softest-breadth day of the week (regime-appropriate); the financials longs are the natural hedge if the rotation persists. Invalidations: 52w-low reclaims / OI-build reversals / a broad V-rebound.
Generated by /market-scan for 2026-06-23. Lanes wrap the same DuckDB screener/DP/feature queries as the retro_harness reference. Outcomes unresolved (h5/h10 windows post-date the 06-26 panel edge). Envelope: decision.json (v2, schema-valid).