Market scan
Jun 22, 2026
schemav2.0calls10
Tier mix
- MEDIUM1
- WATCH7
- ADVISORY1
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 1 |
| WATCH | 7 |
| ADVISORY | 1 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
2 calls
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
NVDA
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10d- Invalidation
- 5d call-OI build reverses / breaks out; broad risk-on continuation
validated excess+0.88% (n=640)regime fit0.70fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
megacap-tech OI-fade cluster → sized ONCE; NVDA only clean entry (-1.0%); MSFT/AMZN/NFLX/PLTR extended, SMCI +15.7% popped
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: strong underlying → tactical OI-fade only
event riskNOTE
ER 2026-08-26 — outside h10
WMG
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5d- Invalidation
- put-heavy turns out informed (gap down on news)
validated excess+0.71% (n=331)regime fit0.50
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
S4 advisory cohort — never sized
fundamentalsN/A
NA
event riskNOTE
no_op
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only.
No vol-book entries in this scan.
Watch / stood-down
8
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | part of China-complex short basket |
| MSFT | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | part of megacap-tech OI-fade basket |
| PLTR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | OI build reverses / breaks out |
| SO | WATCH | S2_dp_revert | Long | news/earnings emerges; concentration not repeated next session |
| SYRE | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | basket loses 52w-high breakouts / sharp risk-off |
| UMC | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | semis basket loses 52w-high breakouts / risk-off reversal |
| WEN | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | reclaims 52w-low anchor / consumer rebound |
| SPCH | DROP | MOM_SHORT | Short | n/a — not a tradable momentum short |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
5
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
NVDAUMCCRDOMSFTPLTR
Lane glossary (5)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
Scoring currency = excess-vs-SPY (conditional), never raw win-rate.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP · ret5 +0.36% · ret10 +0.93% (both positive — mildly up) · breadth 49% green · vol-state: mildly-up/flat (dry-run proxy; GEX/DEX not queried)
directional_tradable: true·s1_standdown: false— matchesretro_harness.py --date 2026-06-22exactly. ✓- Bottom line: the lowest-conviction day of the week — close to "no directional edge." Monday opened the week mildly up (ret10 +0.93%), and the short lanes fire mostly on names already down 4–9% on the day (WEN −9.3%, WHR −5.9%, LULU −5.7%, PLTR −7.0%) — extended, into a tape that doesn't support shorts. Just 1 small OI-fade starter on the only clean entry (NVDA −1.0%), regime-fit discounted; everything else watch. The cleanest structure is a semis breakout (UMC/CRDO/ASX to 52w highs) — long, basket/watch only.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | H | validated_excess | regime_fit | tier | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | OI_FADE | short | 10 | +0.0088 (hit−base +0.205, n=640) | 0.7 (discounted) | MEDIUM | megacap-tech cluster → once; only clean entry (−1.0%); regime_fit cut: ret10 +0.93% mildly-up tape |
Why so light (the discipline):
- Regime doesn't support shorts. ret5 and ret10 are both positive — a mildly-up CHOP. Momentum shorts have low regime-fit here; only OI-fade (the most regime-agnostic lane) earns a small starter, and even that is discounted to 0.7.
- Don't chase the gap-down. The short-lane real names (WEN/WHR/Z/LULU/BAH/CTSH/GWRE) are down 4–9% on the signal day — extended, poor risk/reward in an up tape → all WATCH.
- No additive confluence. PLTR (MOM_SHORT + OI_FADE, both short, −7.0%) and BABA (China + OI_FADE) → noted, not summed; both too extended → watch. No long/short conflicts.
- Issue-type floor (heavy today): the entire SPC* structured-ETF family (SPCH/SPCU/SPCF/SPAL/LOFF, all ≈ −33%) plus PTIR/PLTU/SOXL/LABU/MULL leveraged ETFs fired in the raw screens → all dropped.
- News-pops ≠ momentum: DFTX +49.8%, APGE +46.7%, SMCI +15.7% are M&A/data gaps, not clean momentum signals → excluded from the long basket.
Vol Book (non-directional)#
- None flagged in dry-run. The day's big single-name moves (DFTX +49.8%, APGE +46.7%, UMC +14.2%, SMCI +15.7%) are news/M&A, not scheduled earnings-IV-crush setups.
Watch / Stood-down#
- MOM_LONG SEMIS basket (UMC +14.2 / CRDO +11.3 / ASX +7.5; SOXL 3× dropped) — the cleanest long thematic on the tape (52w-high breakout). Basket WATCH only, never sized per-name.
- MOM_LONG biotech (DFTX/APGE/SYRE) — news-pops, not momentum → watch, flagged as such.
- Short-lane real names, extended → watch: WEN (−9.3%), WHR (−5.9%), LULU (−5.7%), Z (−5.6%), BAH/CTSH/GWRE (IT-services −4–5%), SAP (−3.7%).
- OI-fade cluster members / dual-lane → watch: MSFT (−3.2%), PLTR (−7.0%, dual-lane), AMZN/NFLX (extended), SMCI (+15.7% popped), BABA.
- S2 defensive longs (SO/NRG/EXC utilities + KVUE/MDLZ/BALL staples) — mildly-up tape, low-conviction reversion → watch.
- S4_pcr_fade (WMG/GLBE/XPO/…) — advisory only, never sized.
Risk#
- This is what "low edge" looks like, and saying so is the discipline. The regression evidence supports OI-fade across regimes, so a single discounted starter is defensible — but manufacturing a fuller short book into a mildly-up tape on extended names is exactly the additive-confluence error the system exists to avoid.
- Correlation clusters: megacap-tech OI-fade → 1 (via NVDA); the semis longs → 1 (basket, unsized). Heavy issue-type filtering removed ~10 structured/leveraged ETFs.
- Event calendar: NVDA ER 08-26 (outside h10). No Tier-1 macro pulled for dry-run; the week's catalysts (FOMC was prior week; PCE Fri 06-26) sit ahead.
- Fundamentals gate: CAUTION on NVDA (strong underlying → tactical fade) → starter only.
- Hedge note: a single small short into a flat-to-up tape carries little net exposure — appropriate. The semis-long breakout is the watch to graduate if the tape turns risk-on.
Generated by /market-scan for 2026-06-22. Lanes wrap the same DuckDB screener/DP/feature queries as the retro_harness reference. Outcomes unresolved (h5/h10 windows post-date the 06-26 panel edge). Envelope: decision.json (v2, schema-valid).