Market scan
Jun 25, 2026
schemav2.0calls10
Tier mix
- MEDIUM2
- WATCH5
- ADVISORY1
- DROP2
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| MEDIUM | 2 |
| WATCH | 5 |
| ADVISORY | 1 |
| DROP | 2 |
Directional book
3 calls
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
BABA
MEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10d- Invalidation
- reclaims 52w-low anchor 99.1 / China stimulus V-rebound
validated excess+0.81% (n=273)regime fit0.60
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
China-ADR cluster (TCOM/BABA/LI) → sized ONCE; TCOM -12.6% too extended → use BABA
fundamentalsN/A
NA (ADR)
event riskNOTE
next ER 2026-09-04
NVDA
MEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10d- Invalidation
- 5d call-OI build reverses / breaks out; market V-rebound (06-26 risk)
validated excess+0.88% (n=640)regime fit0.90fundamentalsCAUTION
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
megacap-tech OI-fade cluster → sized ONCE; NVDA cleanest entry (only -1.6% on signal day)
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION: fundamentally strong → tactical OI-fade only
event riskNOTE
next ER 2026-08-26 — outside h10
APG
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade5d- Invalidation
- put-heavy turns out informed (gap down on news)
validated excess+0.71% (n=331)regime fit0.50
Gates
regime crashNOTE
no_op
liquidityPASS
pass
clusterNOTE
S4 advisory cohort — never sized
fundamentalsN/A
NA
event riskNOTE
no_op
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only.
No vol-book entries in this scan.
Watch / stood-down
7
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | basket loses 52w-high breakouts / sharp risk-off |
| HON | WATCH | S2_dp_revert | Long | news/earnings emerges; concentration not repeated next session |
| MSFT | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | part of megacap-tech OI-fade basket |
| MSTR | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | reclaims 52w-low anchor 92.28 / BTC V-rebound |
| PLTR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | OI build reverses / breaks out |
| ICE | DROP | MOM_SHORT | Short | n/a — dropped on lane conflict |
| PLTU | DROP | MOM_SHORT | Short | n/a — not a tradable momentum short |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
6
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
NVDABABAPLTRMSFTMSTRHON
Lane glossary (5)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
Scoring currency = excess-vs-SPY (conditional), never raw win-rate.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: CHOP · ret5 −0.90% · ret10 +1.22% (mildly up) · breadth 64% green · vol-state: mega-cap-tech selloff inside a green tape (dry-run proxy; GEX/DEX not queried)
directional_tradable: true·s1_standdown: false— matchesretro_harness.py --date 2026-06-25exactly. ✓- Bottom line: LOW-conviction day. This is a mega-cap-tech-specific selloff (AAPL −6.1%, MSFT −3.5%, MSTR −9.3%, PLTR −5.5%, COIN −5.1%, TCOM −12.6%) inside a healthy broad tape (64% green, ret10 +1.2%, MU +15.7%, AMD +2.5%) — a rotation, not risk-off. The short lanes fire, but almost every name already gapped down 3–12% on the signal day → initiating shorts here is chasing into mean-reversion risk. Only 2 small starters on the cleanest entries; everything else is watch. Don't chase the gap-down.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | H | validated_excess | regime_fit | tier | gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | OI_FADE | short | 10 | +0.0088 (hit−base +0.205, n=640) | 0.9 | MEDIUM | megacap-tech cluster → sized once; cleanest entry (only −1.6%); ER 08-26 outside h10; CAUTION |
| BABA | MOM_SHORT | short | 10 | +0.0081 (hit−base +0.095) | 0.6 | MEDIUM | China-ADR cluster (TCOM/BABA/LI) → sized once; TCOM −12.6% too extended; regime_fit low (broad tape green) |
Why so light (the discipline):
- Don't chase the gap-down. The OI-fade mega-caps and the China/IT-services shorts all fell 3–12% on 2026-06-25. Shorting after a 6% down-day in a 64%-green tape is poor risk/reward (bounce risk is high — and it did bounce 06-26). NVDA (−1.6%) and BABA (−4.7%) are the least-extended → starter only; the rest are WATCH until they stop gapping.
- No additive confluence. PLTR fires in both MOM_SHORT and OI_FADE (both short) → noted as evidence diversification, not summed; still WATCH (−5.5%, extended). ICE dropped: MOM_SHORT-short and S2-long → lanes conflict, don't net.
- Issue-type floor: leveraged single-stock ETFs (PLTU = PLTR-2×, MSFU = MSFT-lev, NVDL = NVDA-2×-long) fired in the raw screens → dropped (not tradable momentum names).
- Half-cap, no auto-full (invariant #4): nothing above starter; regime_fit discounts shorts because ret10 is positive.
Vol Book (non-directional)#
- None flagged for this date in dry-run. Note MU +15.7% is a single-name move (ER 09-22, not imminent) — not an earnings-IV-crush setup. Mega-cap earnings cluster is late-July → outside the h10 window.
Watch / Stood-down#
- Too extended to chase (short-lane): PLTR (−5.5%, dual-lane), MSFT (−3.5%, cluster member), MSTR (−9.3%), TCOM (−12.6%), CTSH/BAH (IT-services −5%).
- MOM_LONG basket (AMAT/GLW/TEX/WTS/PSMT + biotech) — tail-driven, basket WATCH only, never sized per-name; leveraged ETFs (NVDL/MULL/MVLL/DLLL/INTW) dropped.
- S2 defensive/rotation longs (HON/PEP/DUK/XEL/RSG/MNST/BMY/GM) — the rotation beneficiaries; news-gated, low conviction → WATCH (ICE dropped on conflict).
- S4_pcr_fade (APG/SKY/YUMC/…) — advisory only, never sized.
Risk#
- The setup is the risk: a one-day mega-cap-tech flush is exactly when momentum/OI-fade shorts look most tempting and mean-revert hardest. Half-starter sizing + watch-heavy is the hedge. (Confirmed forward: 06-26 bounced AAPL +3.1% / MSFT +5.7%.)
- Correlation clusters: megacap-tech OI-fade → 1 (via NVDA); China ADRs → 1 (via BABA); leveraged-ETF + conflict names removed. Without clustering this book would be one levered "short mega-cap tech" bet against a green tape.
- Event calendar: all sized/watch names' earnings are late-July+ → outside h10. No Tier-1 macro pulled for dry-run.
- Fundamentals gate: CAUTION on the tech shorts (strong underlyings → tactical fades only) → reinforces starter sizing; no CONFIRM upgrades.
- Hedge note: book is small-net-short into a 64%-green tape; the invalidations (52w-low reclaims / OI-build reversals / a broad V-rebound) are the stops.
Generated by /market-scan for 2026-06-25. Lanes wrap the same DuckDB screener/DP/feature queries as the retro_harness reference. Outcomes unresolved (h5/h10 windows post-date the 06-26 panel edge). Envelope: decision.json (v2, schema-valid).