Weekly review · Week 27, 2026

Regime trajectoryEntered W27 with a relief-bounce recovery off the W26 lows

Mon SPY +1.65%, Tue +0.78% -- risk-on, VIX 18.41 -> 16.45). Settled into CHOP / ROTATION by Thu 07-02 (daily scan: ret10 +0.52%, SPY structurally above 20/50-SMA uptrend, VIX 16.15, uw market-regime TRANSITIONAL / half-size, directional_tradable but low-conviction). Vol collapsed all week (VIX 18.41 -> 16.15, -12%). Critically the recovery was NOT tech-led: QQQ round-tripped its bounce, IWM faded, and the S&P's +2.17% came from large-cap ex-tech -- a defensive/value rotation, continuation of the W26 rotation theme but with leadership handed from small-caps (W26) to large-cap defensives (W27).

Sector leadership

SPY (+2.17%) OUTPERFORMED both QQQ (+0.86%) and IWM (-0.75%) -- the tell that the gains came from large-cap NON-tech. uw sector flow (07-02): Technology -$590M OUT; Healthcare / Industrials IN. Leaders: large-cap defensives/value (Healthcare, Financials, Industrials). Laggards: mega-cap Tech (failed bounce) and small-caps (IWM stalled).

Notable flow

Diary only (0 signal). Trailing ~2wk net CALL-OI build ranked by RELATIVE build (build / 30d-avg call OI, per the beta-trap discipline): CG 3.77x (takeover-driven -- deal positioning, not fadeable froth), TEL 2.53x (iv_rank 92, ern 07-22), RSI 2.31x & CGNX 2.23x (near-52w-HIGH momentum -- call-build consistent with an uptrend, NOT a fade), FOXA 1.98x (iv_rank 100). Mega-cap tech call-OI build persists but is a QQQ-beta trap (not scored). Notable single-name: MSTR squeezed +22.4% on the week (crypto-beta risk-on) -- a live drag on last week's MOM_SHORT book.

Catalysts this week

2026-07-02June NFP / Employment Situation (holiday-shifted to Thu)+57K vs +115K consensus (MISS); unemployment 4.2% but on a falling participation rate (61.5%, lowest since Mar-2021); Apr/May revised down 74K combined; leisure/hospitality -61K. A soft print EASED the Sept rate-HIKE fear the hawkish Warsh Fed had put on the table (2Y -3.5bp to 4.13%), crushing VIX to 16.15 (-12% wk). BUT the intraday reaction FADED: SPY -0.13%, QQQ -1.73% on the day = 'sell-the-relief' in tech. The week's gains were made Mon-Tue PRE-print, not on NFP.
2026-07-03US market HOLIDAY (Independence Day observed)NYSE closed; holiday-shortened 4-day trading week (Mon 06-29 -> Thu 07-02)

Weekly candles

Each candle is normalised to its own weekly range — the source is cross-sectional at incompatible price scales, so a shared axis would misrepresent it. Real prices are in the tooltip and the table below.

Weekly candles — data table

Weekly candles: symbol, open, high, low, close, return
Symbol	Open	High	Low	Close	Return
SPY	736.53	751.31	732.09	744.78	+2.17%
QQQ	713.99	737.62	705.17	712.6	+0.86%
IWM	298.11	302.72	294.68	297.58	-0.75%

SPY2.17%

Open: 736.53
High: 751.31
Low: 732.09
Close: 744.78

bullish reversal of W26's -2.5% down week; marginal higher-high (751.31 > prior 750.18) but still below the 06-15 high 756.68 (recovery inside a consolidation, not a breakout); closed upper-half (0.66); gains front-loaded Mon-Tue, flat Wed-Thu post-NFP; follow_through=False (reversed, did not continue the prior down week)

QQQ0.86%

Open: 713.99
High: 737.62
Low: 705.17
Close: 712.6

INSIDE week (range contained within W26's 745.45/702.81); doji body (body_frac 0.04); rallied +4.2% Mon-Tue to 737.62 then REVERSED -3.2% Wed-Thu to close near its own lows (close_pos 0.23) leaving a 23.6pt upper wick -- the mega-tech bounce FAILED

IWM-0.75%

Open: 298.11
High: 302.72
Low: 294.68
Close: 297.58

marginal higher-high (302.72 > prior 301.50) poked Wed then faded; closed slightly red doji (close_pos 0.36) -- small-cap leadership STALLED after W26's relative strength

Weekly technicals pre-registered · 0 points · not sized

SPY bullish reversal week (higher-high off the W26 selloff)w_ret +2.17%, higher_high=True (751.31>750.18), close_pos 0.66, follow_through=False (reversed the prior down week), still below 06-15 high 756.68would signal: recovery / failed-breakdown long IF it extends and reclaims the 06-15 high 756.68; until then a bounce inside a consolidation
QQQ inside-week doji, failed rally (closed near lows, long upper wick)inside_week=True, body_frac 0.04, close_pos 0.23, upper_wick 23.6pt; rallied +4.2% Mon-Tue then reversed -3.2% Wed-Thuwould signal: mega-tech distribution / continuation-down if next week loses 705.17; a failed-bounce inside-week is a bearish-lean tell
IWM higher-high fade (small-cap leadership stall)higher_high=True (302.72>301.50) but w_ret -0.75%, close_pos 0.36 (poked new high Wed then faded)would signal: rotation OUT of small-caps / leadership handoff to large-cap value
reversal-after-catalyst (soft NFP)QQQ reversed its Mon-Tue rally DOWN through the NFP-day Wed-Thu; SPY held flat -- vol crushed with no bullish follow-throughwould signal: 'sell-the-relief' / vol-crush-without-follow-through as a mean-reversion fade tell

Directional book

No sized calls this week.

Lane status3

laneMOM_LONGBasket watchLongregime fit0.45

[VRTX] rotation reverses / mega-tech V-bounces / broad risk-off. Tail-driven lane that needs a TRENDING broad tape; CHOP (ret10 +0.52%) fails it. Basket-only, never per-name; not sized. || [ALL] loses breakout / risk-off reversal. Insurer leg of the defensive rotation basket; collapses to ONE position with VRTX. Not sized.

VRTXALL

laneMOM_SHORTNo name clearedShortregime fit0.25

broad-green / VIX-crush risk-on tape firms laggards / squeeze -- exactly the momentum-rebound tail that took CME (-4.89%) and MSTR (-20.26%) mid-flight this week. Idiosyncratic laggard, not a rotation name. Not sized.

OLED

laneOI_FADENo name clearedShort

top relative-build name (3.77x) but the call-OI build is TAKEOVER/deal-driven positioning, not fadeable speculative froth. Deal-contaminated -> dropped, not scored.

Lane glossary (3)

MOM_LONG: Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
MOM_SHORT: Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
OI_FADE: OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).

THREE layers, never blended. Layer 1 = diary (0 signal). Layer 2 = validated momentum/OI-fade lanes (scored in excess). Layer 3 = weekly technicals (PRE-REGISTERED, 0 points, never sized). Fri 07-03 = NYSE holiday (Independence Day observed); last trading day Thu 07-02. Truth-set parquet is stale at 2026-06-26 → all W27 bars built path-aware from the live Yahoo chart API.

1. The Week in Pictures (DIARY — documentation, 0 signal)#

Sym	O	H	L	C	w_ret	close_pos	body	structure vs prior
SPY	736.53	751.31	732.09	744.78	+2.17%	0.66	0.43	bullish reversal of W26; marginal higher-high, closed upper-half
QQQ	713.99	737.62	705.17	712.60	+0.86%	0.23	0.04	inside-week doji; +4.2% Mon-Tue → reversed −3.2%, closed near lows — bounce failed
IWM	298.11	302.72	294.68	297.58	−0.75%	0.36	0.07	marginal higher-high then faded — small-cap leadership stalled

The story — a recovery week that mega-tech did not lead. SPY reclaimed ~63% of W26's selloff (+2.17%), but it outperformed both QQQ (+0.86%) and IWM (−0.75%). That ordering is the whole tell: when the cap-weighted index beats both its tech-heavy and its small-cap cousins, the gains came from large-cap ex-tech — the defensive/value rotation. QQQ round-tripped (rallied +4.2% Mon-Tue to 737.62, then a failed rally −3.2% Wed-Thu back to 712.60, closing near its lows with a 23.6-pt upper wick, an inside-week doji). IWM poked a marginal new high Wed then faded red. Leadership handed off from small-caps (the W26 rotation winner) to large-cap defensives (Healthcare / Financials / Industrials).
Catalyst anchored — June NFP, Thu 2026-07-02 (holiday-shifted off the usual first Friday):
- +57K vs +115K consensus (a MISS). Unemployment ticked to 4.2% but on a falling participation rate (61.5%, lowest since Mar-2021); Apr/May revised −74K combined; leisure/hospitality −61K.
- Reaction: a soft print quieted the rate-hike conversation the hawkish Warsh Fed had opened (2Y −3.5 bp to 4.13%), and VIX was crushed to 16.15 (−12% on the week). But the relief faded intraday: SPY −0.13%, QQQ −1.73% on NFP day. The week's gains were banked Mon-Tue, pre-print — NFP itself was sell-the-relief in tech, not a fresh leg up.
Regime trajectory: relief-bounce risk-on into the week (Mon SPY +1.65%, VIX 18.41→16.45) → CHOP / ROTATION by Thu (ret10 +0.52%, above 20/50-SMA, uw regime TRANSITIONAL / half-size). Vol bled lower every session (VIX 18.41 → 16.15).
Notable flow (diary only): trailing ~2wk net call-OI build, ranked relative (build ÷ 30d-avg, per the beta-trap rule): CG 3.77× (takeover-driven, not fadeable), TEL 2.53× (iv_rank 92), RSI 2.31× / CGNX 2.23× — near 52w-highs, i.e. uptrend build, not a fade, FOXA 1.98× (iv_rank 100). Mega-cap tech build persists but is a QQQ-beta trap. Single-name: MSTR squeezed +22.4% (crypto-beta risk-on) — a live drag on last week's short book (§4).

2. Validated Weekly Setups (SCORED — excess) — NO SIZED CALL THIS WEEK#

A "no scored setup" week is a normal, correct output. Nothing sizes, for reasons that all point the same way:

Ticker	Lane	Dir	H	validated_excess	tier	why not sized
VRTX	MOM_LONG	long	10	+0.0235	WATCH	tail-driven; needs a trending tape — CHOP (ret10 +0.52%) fails it; basket-only
ALL	MOM_LONG	long	10	+0.0235	WATCH	insurer leg of the same defensive basket → collapses to ONE position; not sized
OLED	MOM_SHORT	short	10	+0.0081	WATCH	shorting a laggard into a VIX-crushed risk-on tape = fighting the tape (see §4 squeezes)
CG	OI_FADE	short	10	+0.0088	DROP	top relative-build (3.77×) but takeover-driven — deal positioning, not fadeable froth

Momentum (both legs): the regime is CHOP, not trend. MOM_LONG is tail-driven and needs a broad trending tape to pay; MOM_SHORT's candidates are idiosyncratic near-52w-low laggards, and shorting weakness into a 61%-green, VIX-crushed week is exactly the momentum-rebound setup that squeezed CME and MSTR out of last week's book (§4).
OI-fade: the top relative-build name is CG (3.77×) but it's a takeover build (skip). The rest of the leaderboard is either near-52w-high momentum (RSI 0.99, CGNX 0.88 — call-build confirms an uptrend, it doesn't fade one) or earnings/IV-elevated. Mega-cap tech build remains a QQQ-beta trap. No clean beta-neutral, non-deal, idiosyncratic fade with a fundamentals confirm → nothing scored.
Vol book: non-directional; no weekend 0DTE; Q2 earnings IV-crush fuel (TSM/ASML/NFLX 07-15/16, iv_rank 90-100) is ~2 weeks out — pre-registered, too early to sell.

3. Weekly Technicals — PRE-REGISTERED (documented, 0 points, NOT sized)#

Feature	This week	Would signal	Status	Pre-reg bar
SPY bullish reversal / higher-high	+2.17%, HH 751.31, close_pos 0.66, still < 06-15 high 756.68	recovery long if it reclaims 756.68	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT (≥2yr / ≥30 wk / cross-regime / BH)
QQQ inside-week doji, failed rally	inside_week, body 0.04, close_pos 0.23, 23.6-pt upper wick	mega-tech distribution / down if next wk loses 705.17	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT
IWM higher-high fade	HH 302.72 then −0.75%, close_pos 0.36	rotation OUT of small-caps → large-cap value	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT
reversal-after-catalyst (soft NFP)	QQQ reversed its Mon-Tue rally down through NFP; SPY flat	'sell-the-relief' vol-crush fade tell	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT

These earn ZERO conviction and are never sized. Candlestick evidence is weak-to-null on liquid names (Marshall-Young-Rose 2006) and this panel is ~24 weeks — statistically meaningless for a weekly-pattern claim. They graduate to Layer 2 only by clearing PR-WT on the extended panel; /calibration-audit accrues them.

4. Carry-forward — last week's (W26) sized book, mid-flight#

Entered 06-26 close, marked at 07-02 (~4 of 10 sessions; h10 resolves ~07-10, NOT final). Excess = short beats SPY when the name underperforms (SPY +2.17% on the window):

Ticker	Lane	name ret	excess (mid-flight)	read
MARA	OI_FADE short	−14.72%	+16.88%	big win (partly idiosyncratic miner move)
NVDA	OI_FADE short	+1.19%	+0.97%	small win
FXI	MOM_SHORT short	+1.01%	+1.15%	small win
CME	MOM_SHORT short	+7.06%	−4.89%	loss — exchange rallied
MSTR	MOM_SHORT short	+22.43%	−20.26%	big loss — crypto-beta squeeze
ABBV (watch, unsized)	MOM_LONG	+3.05%	+0.88%	would-have-won small

The lane split is the lesson. OI_FADE is 2-for-2 (NVDA + MARA, avg +8.9% excess) — the most-robust lane holding up. MOM_SHORT is the drag: FXI won small but CME and MSTR got squeezed hard in the recovery/risk-on tape — precisely the momentum-rebound tail the short leg is gated against. Equal-weight the 5-name book and it's ≈ −1.2% excess mid-flight, entirely from the two MOM_SHORT squeezes; strip them and the book is solidly green.
Carries into next week: watch whether QQQ confirms the failed-bounce (loses 705.17) or the defensive rotation broadens; whether the CME/MSTR squeezes mean-revert before the ~07-10 h10 resolution. All five roll into /calibration-audit.

Layer-1 candles + carry-forward built path-aware from the live Yahoo chart API (truth-set parquet stale at 2026-06-26); OI build from the panel chain-oi-changes-* (10-file trailing window), ranked relative per the mega-cap beta-trap rule; NFP web-anchored. Envelope: decision.json (weekly schema w1.0, validated). W27 outcomes unresolved (live panel edge).

Sources: CNBC — June 2026 jobs report (+57K, 4.2%) · BLS Employment Situation — June 2026 · Kiplinger — weak June jobs report quiets the rate-hike talk