Weekly review · Week 26, 2026

Regime trajectoryEntered W26 CHOP post-hawkish-FOMC

trajected toward PULLBACK as mega-cap tech sold off (QQQ outside-week down). Fri 2026-06-26 daily regime = CHOP (ret10 -1.19%) but breadth 60% green => rotation, not broad risk-off.

Sector leadership

Laggards: Technology / Communication-Services (QQQ -4.78%). Leaders: small-caps / Financials (IWM +0.91%, made a higher high).

Notable flow

Heavy 5-day net CALL-OI build in mega-cap tech (NVDA/MSFT/AMZN/META/AAPL) — the OI-fade setup. Diary only, 0 signal.

Catalysts this week

2026-06-17FOMC decision + SEP (Warsh's 1st mtg; core-PCE proj revised 2.7%->3.3%, hawkish)prior-week print; set the hawkish backdrop — mega-cap tech led down into W26
2026-06-26PCE deflator / Personal Incomemonth-end print; week closed risk-off, QQQ -4.78% on the lows, no intraweek reversal

Weekly candles

Each candle is normalised to its own weekly range — the source is cross-sectional at incompatible price scales, so a shared axis would misrepresent it. Real prices are in the tooltip and the table below.

Weekly candles — data table

Weekly candles: symbol, open, high, low, close, return
Symbol	Open	High	Low	Close	Return
SPY	747.7	750.18	716.58	728.99	-2.50%
QQQ	742.02	745.45	702.81	706.52	-4.78%
IWM	297.13	301.5	292.4	299.83	+0.91%

SPY-2.50%

Open: 747.7
High: 750.18
Low: 716.58
Close: 728.99

lower-low follow-through; big body, closed lower-third (risk-off confirmation)

QQQ-4.78%

Open: 742.02
High: 745.45
Low: 702.81
Close: 706.52

bearish OUTSIDE week (engulfed prior range), closed on the low — mega-cap distribution

IWM0.91%

Open: 297.13
High: 301.5
Low: 292.4
Close: 299.83

higher-high, closed strong — DIVERGED green from tech (rotation)

Weekly technicals pre-registered · 0 points · not sized

QQQ bearish outside-week closing on the lowclose_pos 0.09, body_frac 0.83, outside_week=Truewould signal: continuation-down / distribution if next week loses 702.81
SPY lower-low follow-throughlower_low=True, follow_through=True, close_pos 0.37would signal: weekly trend-continuation down
IWM higher-high vs QQQ down (breadth divergence)IWM higher_high=True close_pos 0.82 while QQQ -4.78%would signal: small-cap rotation / breadth-bullish for IWM
reversal-after-catalyst (hawkish FOMC)no intraweek reversal — week confirmed the risk-off movewould signal: if it had reversed: failed-breakdown long; it did not

Directional book5

NVDAMEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10d5d call-OI build reverses / breaks out on real catalyst

MARAMEDIUMShortlaneOI_FADE10dOI build reverses / BTC rips

FXIMEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dreclaims 52w-low anchor 31.49 / China stimulus V-rebound

CMEMEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dreclaims 52w-low anchor 224.4 / market V-rebound

MSTRMEDIUMShortlaneMOM_SHORT10dreclaims 52w-low anchor 85.0 / BTC V-rebound

Lane status1

laneMOM_LONGBasket watchLongregime fit0.50

biotech basket loses 52w-high breakouts / sharp risk-off

ABBV

Lane glossary (3)

OI_FADE: OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
MOM_SHORT: Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
MOM_LONG: Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).

DRY-RUN. THREE layers, never blended. Layer 1 = diary (0 signal). Layer 2 = validated momentum/OI-fade lanes (scored in excess). Layer 3 = weekly technicals (PRE-REGISTERED, 0 points, never sized).

1. The Week in Pictures (DIARY — documentation, 0 signal)#

Sym	O	H	L	C	w_ret	close_pos	body	structure vs prior
SPY	747.70	750.18	716.58	728.99	−2.50%	0.37	0.56	lower-low follow-through, closed lower-third
QQQ	742.02	745.45	702.81	706.52	−4.78%	0.09	0.83	bearish OUTSIDE week, closed on the low — mega-cap distribution
IWM	297.13	301.50	292.40	299.83	+0.91%	0.82	0.30	higher-high, closed strong — diverged green from tech

The story: a tech-led down week. QQQ engulfed the prior week's range and closed at its lows (−4.78%); SPY confirmed with a lower-low follow-through. But IWM made a higher high and closed green — this was a rotation week, not broad risk-off (Friday breadth was 60% green).
Catalysts anchored:
- FOMC — Wed 2026-06-17 (prior week, Kevin Warsh's first meeting): SEP revised Q4-2026 core PCE up 2.7% → 3.3% (hawkish; inflation seen more persistent). Set the backdrop — mega-cap tech led down into W26.
- PCE deflator / Personal Income — Fri 2026-06-26 (month-end): week closed risk-off, no intraweek reversal of the hawkish move.
Regime trajectory: entered CHOP post-hawkish-FOMC → trajected toward PULLBACK as mega-cap tech sold off; Friday daily regime CHOP (ret10 −1.19%), breadth 60% green.
Sector leadership: laggards Technology / Comm-Services (QQQ −4.78%); leaders small-caps / Financials (IWM +0.91%).
Notable flow (diary only): heavy 5-day net call-OI build in mega-cap tech (NVDA/MSFT/AMZN/META/AAPL) — the OI-fade setup below.

2. Validated Weekly Setups (SCORED — excess, half-cap)#

The momentum (52w-range) + OI-flow-fade lanes at a 2–4 week hold (h10). Same validated-excess priors, same risk-sizer gate stack as /market-scan.

Ticker	Lane	Dir	H	validated_excess	tier	cluster
NVDA	OI_FADE	short	10	+0.0088	MEDIUM	megacap-tech → sized once
MARA	OI_FADE	short	10	+0.0088	MEDIUM	crypto/meme → sized once
FXI	MOM_SHORT	short	10	+0.0081	MEDIUM	China complex → sized once
CME	MOM_SHORT	short	10	+0.0081	MEDIUM	exchanges → sized once
MSTR	MOM_SHORT	short	10	+0.0081	MEDIUM	single (crypto-beta)
ABBV	MOM_LONG	long	10	+0.0235	WATCH	biotech basket — never sized per-name (tail-driven)

The QQQ outside-week-down structurally agrees with the OI-fade mega-cap shorts — noted as evidence diversification, not summed (no additive confluence). Everything is half-cap; nothing sizes full.

3. Weekly Technicals — PRE-REGISTERED (documented, 0 points, NOT sized)#

Feature	This week	Would signal	Status	Pre-reg bar
QQQ bearish outside-week on the low	close_pos 0.09, body 0.83, outside_week	continuation-down if next wk loses 702.81	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT (≥2yr / ≥30 wk / cross-regime / BH)
SPY lower-low follow-through	lower_low, follow_through, close_pos 0.37	weekly trend-continuation down	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT
IWM higher-high vs QQQ down	breadth divergence, close_pos 0.82	small-cap rotation / breadth-bullish	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT
reversal-after-catalyst (hawkish FOMC)	no intraweek reversal — week confirmed	(if reversed) failed-breakdown long — it did not	PRE-REGISTERED	PR-WT

These earn ZERO conviction and are never sized. The candlestick literature is weak-to-null on liquid names (Marshall-Young-Rose 2006) and this panel has ~11–14 weeks — statistically meaningless for a weekly-pattern claim. They graduate to Layer 2 only by clearing PR-WT on the extended panel. /calibration-audit accrues them toward the bar.

4. Carry-forward#

First weekly review on the panel — no prior Layer-2 calls to resolve yet. The 5 sized shorts (NVDA/MARA/FXI/CME/MSTR) roll into next week's /calibration-audit resolution queue (h10 ≈ resolves ~2026-07-10).
Watch whether QQQ confirms the outside-week (loses 702.81) or the IWM rotation divergence resolves up — both are pre-registered, neither is sized.

Generated by /weekly-review dry-run. Layer-2 priors from retro_harness --all; Layer-1 candles from weekly_features.parquet; catalysts web-anchored. Envelope: decision.json (weekly schema, validated). Outcomes unresolved (W26 is the live panel edge).

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC June 17 2026 SEP · FRED Blog — FOMC SEP June 2026 · FRED Economic Release Calendar

Week 26, 2026

The week