Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

WAT · S-C C1 iron butterfly, exploration

Opened Oct 30, 2026, in MA.

The trade

Account: MA
Strategy: S-C C1 iron butterfly, exploration
Book: exploration
Symbol: WAT
Asset class: option structure
Side: short
Exposure: neutral
Status: open
Opened: Oct 30, 2026
Closed: —
Quantity: 1
Entry price: 43.556562
Exit price: —
Exit by: —
Book value at entry: —

Record GitHub ledger

Cost model

half of each leg's spread plus $0.65 a contract at entry, the spread quoted from 15:00 to 16:00 ET or, for a wing priced by model, the stock's median option spread over the 20 sessions before, at least 5%; nothing at expiry

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 30, 2026	—	sell	1	—	43.556562	—	—	—	—	late window	F3	4 trigger numbers rank null verdict F3 cap_pass true cap_reason null 13 numbers k 460 k_dn 360 k_up 560 close 461.71 iv30d 0.443 sector Healthcare dte_cal 21 marketcap 45362135330 sigma_hold 49.060980359462434 mean_spread 0.12948895714285716 model_entry true entry_cost_usd 299.59826477169645 entry_tier_max 3

Legs

Contract	Right	Strike	Expiry	Side	Qty	Entry	Exit	Facts
WAT261120C00460000	call	460.00	Nov 20, 2026	short	1	22.29	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 1 entry_source print_vwap entry_spread 0.1970167142857143
WAT261120P00460000	put	460.00	Nov 20, 2026	short	1	22.20	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 1 entry_source print_vwap entry_spread 0.0619612
WAT261120C00560000	call	560.00	Nov 20, 2026	long	1	0.802225	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 3 entry_source model entry_spread 0.185255
WAT261120P00360000	put	360.00	Nov 20, 2026	long	1	0.131213	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 3 entry_source model entry_spread 0.185255

Notes

variant: C1
risk_usd: 5644.343820142699
graded_at: null
policy_id: sc-1.0
structure: IB
max_loss_usd: 5644.343820142699
stress_loss_usd: null