TLT, Oct 2, 2026 · Trading desk

Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Account: MA
Strategy: S-C C1 iron butterfly, exploration
Book: exploration
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: option structure
Side: short
Exposure: neutral
Status: open
Opened: Oct 2, 2026
Closed: —
Quantity: 1
Entry price: 2.721577
Exit price: —
Exit by: —
Book value at entry: —

Record GitHub ledger

Cost model

half of each leg's spread plus $0.65 a contract at entry, the spread quoted from 15:00 to 16:00 ET or, for a wing priced by model, the stock's median option spread over the 20 sessions before, at least 5%; nothing at expiry

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 2, 2026	—	sell	1	—	2.721577	—	—	—	—	late window	F1	4 trigger numbers rank null verdict F1 cap_pass true cap_reason null 13 numbers k 77 k_dn 70.5 k_up 84.5 close 77.48 iv30d 0.1597644170506111 sector null dte_cal 28 marketcap 46423398162 sigma_hold 3.4284850067719006 mean_spread 0.008479946815568332 model_entry true entry_cost_usd 3.838302516100015 entry_tier_max 3

Contract	Right	Strike	Expiry	Side	Qty	Entry	Exit	Facts
TLT261030C00077000	call	77.00	Oct 30, 2026	short	1	1.727879	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 1 entry_source print_vwap entry_spread 0.006111750773993808
TLT261030P00077000	put	77.00	Oct 30, 2026	short	1	1.05	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 1 entry_source print_vwap entry_spread 0.010848142857142857
TLT261030C00084500	call	84.50	Oct 30, 2026	long	1	0.040476	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 3 entry_source model entry_spread 0.05
TLT261030P00070500	put	70.50	Oct 30, 2026	long	1	0.015826	—	4 numbers exit_tier null entry_tier 3 entry_source model entry_spread 0.05

variant: C1
risk_usd: 477.8423401751473
graded_at: null
policy_id: sc-1.0
structure: IB
max_loss_usd: 477.8423401751473
stress_loss_usd: null

TLT · S-C C1 iron butterfly, exploration

The trade

Entry and exit

Legs

Notes