Market scan
Jul 10, 2026
Tier mix
- HIGH2
- MEDIUM2
- WATCH33
- ADVISORY12
- DROP1
Tier mix — data table
| Tier | Calls |
|---|---|
| HIGH | 2 |
| MEDIUM | 2 |
| WATCH | 33 |
| ADVISORY | 12 |
| DROP | 1 |
Directional book
Sizing is removed from every call by policy — see the disclaimer.
MAT
HIGHShortlaneOI_FADE10dCleanest OI_FADE signal tonight -- CONFIRM fundamentals (Goldman Sell downgrade, 3rd PT cut, fresh 52w low), no earnings inside h10, no missing-verdict hold, passes liquidity clean. Downsized from the lane's half ceiling to starter because MAT is Consumer Cyclical, one of tonight's sector-inflow destinations (money rotating IN, not out) -- a real headwind/squeeze-risk for a short, per Phase-B's explicit 'size smaller' sector-alignment note.
- Invalidation
- Close > $16.50 (~52w-range midpoint reclaim), or the 5-day net call-OI build fully unwinds without downside follow-through.
- Consumer Cyclical sector inflow fights the short thesis -- primary reason this sizes at starter, not half
- CPI 07-14 / PPI 07-15 fall inside the h10 window -- defined-risk-through-print on the idiosyncratic thesis
- 0.83x rel-build score is mid-pack, not the top of tonight's OI_FADE ranking
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $13.32, 20d $-ADV $65.0M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- standalone, no >=0.70 correlation partner in tonight's OI_FADE cohort
fundamentalsNOTE
CONFIRM -- Goldman downgrade to Sell 2026-07-09, 3rd price-target cut, fresh 52w low; clean short
event riskNOTE
Not inside the h10 window (day10 ~2026-07-24).
OLED
HIGHShortlaneOI_FADE10dOI_FADE signal in Tech, ALIGNED with this week's Tech sector outflow (tailwind). Fundamentals CAUTION -- insider MSPR +74.7 buying INTO the short is a real contradiction signal -- pulls the lane's HIGH/half ceiling down one tier to MEDIUM/starter.
- Invalidation
- Close > $88.00 (clears the CAUTION-flagged insider-buying zone), or the 5-day net call-OI build fully unwinds without downside follow-through.
- Insider buying (MSPR +74.7) directly fights the short thesis
- CPI/PPI mid-horizon macro print risk
- 0.50x rel-build score is below the cohort median
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $80.97, 20d $-ADV $63.7M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- standalone, no >=0.70 correlation partner in tonight's OI_FADE cohort
fundamentalsNOTE
CAUTION (-1 tier) -- insider MSPR +74.7 buying into the short; the flow-fundamentals contradiction is real but not disqualifying, so -1 tier not veto
event riskNOTE
Not inside the h10 window (day10 ~2026-07-24).
GNRC
MEDIUMLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (92.2% sell-side dark-pool concentration, $29.3M -- higher-conviction SELL_LOSERS bounce tier.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- 92.2% sell-side dark-pool concentration, $29.3M -- higher-conviction SELL_LOSERS bounce tier.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $234.13, 20d $-ADV $237.9M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
KEY
MEDIUMLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (94.7% sell-side dark-pool concentration, $71.6M -- higher-conviction SELL_LOSERS bounce tier.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- 94.7% sell-side dark-pool concentration, $71.6M -- higher-conviction SELL_LOSERS bounce tier.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $23.29, 20d $-ADV $279.7M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
AME
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-fade candidate.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-fade candidate.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $233.81, 20d $-ADV $286.0M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
ECL
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-fade candidate.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-fade candidate.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $274.37, 20d $-ADV $473.2M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
FHN
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-fade candidate.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-fade candidate.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $25.73, 20d $-ADV $117.1M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
FRMI
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $6.61, 20d $-ADV $138.2M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
FSS
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-z 19.85 + IV-rank rise -- top-ranked signal tonight.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-z 19.85 + IV-rank rise -- top-ranked signal tonight.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $115.09, 20d $-ADV $81.8M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
MSM
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-z 10.14.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-z 10.14.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $122.75, 20d $-ADV $113.0M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
ORA
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $109.78, 20d $-ADV $102.8M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
RARE
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-fade candidate.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-fade candidate.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $33.80, 20d $-ADV $111.6M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
RIOT
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $21.00, 20d $-ADV $329.8M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
TDY
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-z 8.43.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-z 8.43.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $634.62, 20d $-ADV $216.5M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
VEEV
ADVISORYLonglaneS2_dp_revert5dDark-pool one-sided liquidity-reversion candidate (BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.)
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only; would require next-session dark-pool follow-through confirmation to promote to a live call.
- Advisory-only lane -- MODERATE conviction (+0.47%), never sized beyond half even if promoted
- Decays by h10 -- short shelf life
- BUY_FADE tier -- lower conviction, needs next-session validation.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $190.12, 20d $-ADV $495.4M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S2 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier -- would gate on same-day news/catalyst per lane design if promoted to a live call
YUM
ADVISORYLonglaneS4_pcr_fade10dPCR-high fade long candidate (PCR-fade candidate.). HCA was cut upstream in Phase B (informed Barclays downgrade, catalyst_unverified) and correctly excluded from this list.
- Invalidation
- N/A -- advisory/watch only.
- Advisory-only lane -- LOW-MODERATE conviction (+0.71%)
- PCR-fade candidate.
regime crashPASS
PASS -- s1_standdown FALSE, directional_tradable TRUE; this lane/direction is not zeroed. Book-wide half-cap-no-auto-full policy already ceilings every call at or below half, so the P0.6 out-of-regime discipline is a no-op tonight (nothing to cap further).
liquidityPASS
PASS -- close $163.60, 20d $-ADV $409.5M (>= $50M floor), verified via Stock Screener parquet 2026-07-10
clusterN/A
N/A -- no >=0.70 correlation partner identified in tonight's S4 cohort
fundamentalsN/A
NA -- not spawned; advisory-only lane, NA does not penalize
event riskNOTE
Not evaluated at advisory tier
Vol book
Non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost — advisory only, 0 directional points.
JNJ
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 82.23, earnings 2026-07-15 premarket. Liquidity: close $257.04, 20d $-ADV $2.32B. Implied-vs-realized richness 4.4x is an ANOMALY -- verify no idiosyncratic catalyst before entry; size cautious.
- Implied move
- 0.47%
Cautious/reduced size, wide wings beyond the 0.47% implied move, two-sided tail. Verify no idiosyncratic litigation/regulatory catalyst is driving the 4.4x richness before sizing up. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here -- do not enter until it prices net-positive.
TSM
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 88.0, earnings 2026-07-16 premarket. Liquidity: close $434.47, 20d $-ADV $6.31B. Implied-vs-realized richness 2.4x -- secondary candidate, crush survives cost.
- Implied move
- 0.17%
Small-to-moderate size, wide wings, two-sided tail. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here -- do not enter until it prices net-positive.
CAG
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 88.35, earnings 2026-07-15 premarket. Liquidity: close $13.82, 20d $-ADV $327.0M. Implied-vs-realized richness 2.0x but options market is thin -- small size only.
- Implied move
- 1.31%
Small size only (thin options liquidity despite adequate equity ADV), wide wings, two-sided tail. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here.
STT
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 78.25, earnings 2026-07-16 premarket. Liquidity: close $180.21, 20d $-ADV $493.3M. Implied-vs-realized richness 1.8x -- secondary/advisory.
- Implied move
- 5.04%
Half-size, wide wings, two-sided tail advisory. IV rank (78.25) sits just under the 80 gate used to exclude the JPM/BAC/C/WFC bank cluster -- treat as borderline, half-size at most. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here.
NFLX
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 99.07, earnings 2026-07-16 postmarket. Liquidity: close $73.36, 20d $-ADV $3.63B. Most liquid name in the cluster -- primary candidate despite lower 1.3x richness.
- Implied move
- 0.43%
Primary size, wide wings beyond the 0.43% implied move, two-sided tail. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here -- do not enter until it prices net-positive.
ASML
vol_earningssell premium- Vol state
- iv_rank 85.98, earnings 2026-07-15 premarket. Liquidity: close $1797.00, 20d $-ADV $4.02B. Implied-vs-realized richness 1.3x -- secondary/advisory.
- Implied move
- 0.41%
Half-size, wide wings, two-sided tail advisory. Net-of-cost expectancy not independently recomputed here.
SPY-0DTE
vol_0dtesell premium- Vol state
- FAIR 30d VRP, VIX 15.03 below the sample floor used to size 0DTE premium-selling conviction. SPY sitting near its zero-gamma pin (ZG 754.15 vs spot 754.95) -- reduced-conviction marginal size only.
Marginal quarter-size premium-selling only, defined-risk structures, no naked short vol. Thin edge given VIX below the sample floor.
QQQ-0DTE
vol_0dtebuy premium- Vol state
- Negative 30d VRP + negative gamma (QQQ GEX negative -- vol-amplification skew in tech). No clean premium-selling edge tonight.
Stand aside Negative 30d VRP combined with negative dealer gamma means selling premium here is selling into vol-amplification risk, not collecting a clean VRP -- stand aside.
Watch / stood-down
| Ticker | Tier | Lane | Direction | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACI | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| CAKE | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| CM | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| CPRT | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; would require the fundamentals picture to deteriorate materially before re-evaluation. |
| CROX | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| CSGP | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| EAT | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| ETSY | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| EXPD | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| EXTR | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| FR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| GFL | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| GIL | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| GPOR | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; would require the index-inclusion flow to exhaust and the fundamentals picture to weaken before re-evaluation. |
| HIW | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| INSP | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| JOBY | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| MUFG | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| NSC | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| OII | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| PAG | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| PATK | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| PCAR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| RY | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| SLM | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| TDG | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; would require the fundamentals picture to deteriorate materially before re-evaluation. |
| TEL | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| TIGO | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| TYL | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| UDR | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| UNP | WATCH | MOM_LONG | Long | N/A -- basket documented for awareness only, not an active call |
| XE | WATCH | MOM_SHORT | Short | N/A -- watch-only; the stacked bullish catalysts argue for holding at watch well past a single -1 tier. |
| XENE | WATCH | OI_FADE | Short | N/A -- watch-only; requires a fundamentals-gate verdict before any sizing. |
| CPK | DROP | S2_dp_revert | Long | N/A -- fails the C12 liquidity floor (20d $-ADV $27.3M < $50M), dropped fail-closed per RESEARCH/30 illiquidity-contamination discipline. Not sized, not watch -- excluded outright. |
Lane status
No lane produced a conceptual fire without a sized call tonight.
Watchlist write-back
Carried forward to the next session's watchlist — not calls.
Lane glossary (7)
- OI_FADE
- OI-flow fade — fades persistent multi-day net call-OI building; heavy call-OI build precedes underperformance. The most robust lane measured (short, h10).
- MOM_SHORT
- Momentum, short leg — near-52w-low relative weakness. Regime-gated against momentum-crash/squeeze rebounds (h10).
- MOM_LONG
- Momentum, long leg — near-52w-high relative strength. Tail-driven; basket-only, never sized per-name (h10).
- S2_dp_revert
- Liquidity reversion — fades an extreme one-sided dark-pool liquidity event as short-horizon mean reversion (long-tilted), news/earnings-gated (h3-5).
- S4_pcr_fade
- Sentiment contrarian — fades a put-heavy (high put/call ratio) crowd long; the only sentiment leg that measured positive. Advisory size only (h5-10).
- vol_earnings
- Vol book — sells volatility into an earnings IV-crush. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
- vol_0dte
- Vol book — 0DTE variance-risk-premium premium-selling. Non-directional, delta-neutral, 0 directional points.
Regime & Verdict#
- Regime: UPTREND · vol suppressed/pinned at index (SPY GEX+, ZG 754.15 ≈ spot; VIX 15.03, 15d low) with a latent tech vol-amplification skew (QQQ short-gamma, spot well below ZG) · breadth healthy (67% green, 338/163 A/D) but options-flow positioning bearish-skewed (33.4% bullish across 6,261 names — crowded-hedge backdrop) ·
directional_tradable = true·s1_standdown = false - SPY 754.95 (+1.37% 5d, +2.81% 10d, −0.72% off 52w high); above 20/50/200-SMA. Composite regime reads "TRANSITIONAL" only because of the flow-positioning skew, not a price-breadth divergence.
- Bottom line: 2 regime-appropriate calls — both starter-size shorts. The two most robust lanes (OI-flow-fade, MOM_SHORT) both point short and are LIVE (crash-gate off), but the fundamentals veto + earnings-in-horizon gate thinned the book to one clean-CONFIRM name and one CAUTION. This is a thin, short-tilted book on an up tape — sized accordingly.
Directional Book (excess-scored)#
| Ticker | Lane | Dir | Horizon | validated_excess | regime_fit | Fundamentals | Invalidation | Gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | OI_FADE | short | h10 (→07-24) | +2.1% median (hit 0.61 vs 0.41, n=640) | 1.0 (shorts live) | CONFIRM (Goldman→Sell 07-09, 3rd PT cut, fresh 52w low) | OI build reverses / breakout on real catalyst | liq PASS · no earn-in-horizon (08-04) · downsized: Consumer-Cyclical is this week's sector-inflow destination (squeeze headwind) |
| OLED | OI_FADE | short | h10 (→07-24) | +2.1% median (as above) | 1.0 | CAUTION −1 (insider MSPR +74.7 buying into the short) | OI build reverses / earnings 07-30 surprise | liq PASS · Tech = sector outflow (tailwind) · CAUTION knocked half→starter |
No name is sized above starter. Every deviation from a lane's implied ceiling was a downgrade — consistent with half-cap-no-auto-full.
Vol Book (non-directional, delta-neutral, net-of-cost, advisory — 0 directional points)#
- Earnings IV-crush SELL-VOL (rank by implied-vs-realized richness, wide wings — CPI/PPI mid-horizon realized-vol risk):
- NFLX (primary — most liquid, IV-rank 99.1, earn 07-16) · TSM (secondary, IV-rank 88.0, 2.4x, earn 07-16)
- JNJ cautious (4.4x richness is an anomaly — verify no idiosyncratic catalyst before entry, earn 07-15) · STT half (IV-rank 78.3, just under 80 gate, earn 07-16) · ASML half (earn 07-15) · CAG small (thin liquidity, earn 07-15)
- Bank cluster JPM/BAC/C/WFC EXCLUDED — IV-rank 22–51 (below 80 gate); WFC implied move actually cheaper than its realized average. The "obvious" macro-calendar candidate is not a crush candidate — exactly the screen-vs-reality gap the lane catches.
- 0DTE-VRP premium-selling: no clean sell today. SPY marginal quarter-size only (30d VRP FAIR, VIX below sample floor — out-of-sample-low). QQQ stand-aside (30d VRP PREMIUM_BUYING −7.3% + negative gamma both argue for buying convexity, not selling).
Watch / Stood-down#
- VETO → watch-only: TDG (3/3 beat streak, +13.3% rev, Zacks upgrade + raised guidance this week), CPRT (3/4 beats, founder Jay Adair returns 07-31 w/ growth/M&A mandate). Both showed ≥2-of-3 fundamentals-fight-the-short + a live bullish catalyst — correctly not shorted.
- CAUTION, MOM_SHORT ceiling already starter → watch: GPOR (rev +90.7% YoY + S&P 600/1500 index-inclusion bid), XE (<3mo history, ARK bought ~$15M, Russell inclusion 07-08, UBS/TD Cowen Buy above price).
- Earnings-in-horizon → held at watch: SLM (07-23, top OI-fade rel-build 1.40x), ACI (07-23), FR (07-22), TEL (07-22).
- Missing fundamentals verdict → held (cannot size unverified): XENE, INSP, TYL, HIW, GFL, GIL, PCAR, UDR, JOBY, CSGP, PATK. Flagged for next-run fundamentals-gate spawn (priority: HIW — 0.58x, not earnings-gated).
- Advisory lanes (not in directional book):
- S2 liquidity-reversion (long-tilt, h3–5, +0.47%, MODERATE): SELL_LOSERS bounce KEY (94.7% sell-side, $71.6M), GNRC (92.2%). BUY_FADE tier needs next-session DP-concentration validation. CPK dropped (failed $50M liquidity floor). Half-cap max, decays by h10.
- S4 sentiment-contrarian (PCR-fade long, h5–10, +0.71%, LOW-MOD advisory): FSS (PCR-z 19.85 + IV-rank rise), MSM (z 10.14), TDY (z 8.43). HCA cut (informed Barclays downgrade same-day). Short mirror NOT fired (measured negative).
- MOM_LONG basket (documented, never per-name HIGH, tail-driven +2.35% mean): CROX/CAKE/PAG/EAT/EXTR/OII/EXPD/NSC/CM/RY/UNP/MUFG/ETSY/TIGO. Theme clusters noted, not sized.
- BOIL excluded from MOM_SHORT (2× leveraged nat-gas ETP — artifact).
Risk#
- Correlation clusters collapsed:
oi_fade_reitFR/HIW/UDR → 1 slot (all within 6% of 52w high, crowded-call-at-top; all held at watch). MOM_LONG theme clusters (railroads NSC/UNP/EXPD; banks CM/RY/MUFG; discretionary CROX/CAKE/EAT/ETSY) documented, never per-name. - Event calendar (h10 window 07-10 → 07-24): CPI 07-14, PPI 07-15, big-bank Q2 earnings 07-14 (all Tier-1) — defined-risk-through-print, macro tag on the whole book, not an automatic −1. Vol-book earnings TSM/STT/NFLX 07-16. FOMC 07-29 just outside the window — flagged as approaching.
- Tail caps applied: OI_FADE/MOM_SHORT sized for the up-tape short-squeeze tail (MAT's sector-inflow downsize; GPOR index-inclusion + XE ARK/Russell squeeze flags → both to watch). MOM_LONG kept basket-only. Vol-short sized for the left tail, quoted net-of-cost (JNJ-anomaly + STT-borderline caveats).
- Hedge note: QQQ negative gamma = the fragile leg; any tech-heavy add wants tighter vol sizing. Book is net-short into a pinned-but-complacent index (VIX 15) — small, single-theme-diversified, half-cap.
Envelope: decision.json (v2, validated vs schema). Conviction persisted: conviction_2026-07-10.json for next-run adverse-flow exit checks. No lane/threshold change this scan → regression gate not triggered.