Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Nov 3, 2026, closed Nov 3, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: long
Exposure: long
Status: closed
Opened: Nov 3, 2026
Closed: Nov 3, 2026
Quantity: 78
Entry price: 753.722564
Exit price: 754.48
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $47,361.82

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $58,790.36
Exit value: $58,849.44
P&L: +$59.08
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.09
Net P&L: +$57.99
Return: +0.10%
Of the book: +12.5 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 29.9 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Nov 3, 2026	10:00 ET	buy	78	78	753.722564	753.805	—	−1.1 bp	—	—	long in: 753.80 > band 753.64	8 trigger numbers at 10:00 lb 751.1814957991928 px 753.805 ub 753.6392613775184 pos 1 vwap 753.5407500013163 reason long in: 753.80 > band 753.64 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Nov 3, 2026	10:30 ET	sell	78	78	754.48	754.59	—	+1.5 bp	—	signal	long out: 754.59 < max(band 754.79, VWAP 753.72)	8 trigger numbers at 10:30 lb 750.0311711138642 px 754.59 ub 754.7905343427367 pos 0 vwap 753.7210455010162 reason long out: 754.59 < max(band 754.79, VWAP 753.72) symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	buy	market	78	—	753.805	filled	78	753.722564	10:00 ET	10:00 ET
exit	sell	market	78	—	754.59	filled	78	754.48	10:30 ET	10:30 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 754.88
Low: 753.0401
Best point (MFE): +0.15%
Worst point (MAE): −0.09%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 753.815 at 10:00 ET
Exit: 754.56 at 10:30 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: −0.2%
The rule's trades that day: 4

side: 1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 630
entry_min: 600

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:05
leverage: 2.4928638536678025
open.note: SPY: open 752.72, previous close 752.10, leverage 2.49, 78 shares a leg
open.open: 752.72
open.event: open
prev_close: 752.1
open.shares: 78
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0012212527600148745
open.leverage: 2.4928638536678025
open.prev_close: 752.1