Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Oct 30, 2026, closed Oct 30, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: short
Exposure: short
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 30, 2026
Closed: Oct 30, 2026
Quantity: 93
Entry price: 758.39
Exit price: 755.476559
Exit by: close
Book value at entry: $47,259.16

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $70,530.27
Exit value: $70,259.32
P&L: +$270.95
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.30
Net P&L: +$269.65
Return: +0.38%
Of the book: +57.3 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 268.9 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 30, 2026	11:30 ET	sell	93	93	758.39	758.535	—	+1.9 bp	—	—	short in: 758.53 < band 758.88	8 trigger numbers at 11:30 lb 758.8771780313837 px 758.535 ub 771.8890539674993 pos −1 vwap 759.5055091394256 reason short in: 758.53 < band 758.88 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 30, 2026	15:59 ET	buy	93	93	755.476559	—	755.72	—	−3.2 bp	close	out by a market order sent at 15:59:00, for the rule's exit at the official close	5 trigger numbers at 15:59:00 held −93 note SPY: out at market for the close (-93 held) event close_phase symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	sell	market	93	—	758.535	filled	93	758.39	11:30 ET	11:30 ET
exit	buy	market	93	—	—	filled	93	755.476559	15:59 ET	15:59 ET

Path while held

Span: 270 minutes
High: 758.54
Low: 750.36
Best point (MFE): +1.06%
Worst point (MAE): −0.02%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 758.51 at 11:30 ET
Exit: — at 16:00 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: +0.1%
The rule's trades that day: 4

side: −1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 960
entry_min: 690

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:07
leverage: 3.0204444029619943
open.note: SPY: open 761.38, previous close 769.36, leverage 3.02, 93 shares a leg
open.open: 761.38
open.event: open
prev_close: 769.36
open.shares: 93
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0011947722967728233
open.leverage: 3.0204444029619943
open.prev_close: 769.36