Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Oct 30, 2026, closed Oct 30, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: short
Exposure: short
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 30, 2026
Closed: Oct 30, 2026
Quantity: 93
Entry price: 757.96
Exit price: 759.79043
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $47,259.16

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $70,490.28
Exit value: $70,660.51
P&L: −$170.23
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.30
Net P&L: −$171.53
Return: −0.24%
Of the book: −36.0 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 30 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 30, 2026	10:30 ET	sell	93	93	757.96	758.12	—	+2.1 bp	—	—	short in: 758.12 < band 759.75	8 trigger numbers at 10:30 lb 759.7491047871787 px 758.12 ub 771.0079885746096 pos −1 vwap 759.796638344714 reason short in: 758.12 < band 759.75 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 30, 2026	11:00 ET	buy	93	93	759.79043	759.79	—	+0.0 bp	—	signal	short out: 759.79 > min(band 759.32, VWAP 759.61)	8 trigger numbers at 11:00 lb 759.3159516233554 px 759.79 ub 771.4456816032142 pos 0 vwap 759.6096723157023 reason short out: 759.79 > min(band 759.32, VWAP 759.61) symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	sell	market	93	—	758.12	filled	93	757.96	10:30 ET	10:30 ET
exit	buy	market	93	—	759.79	filled	93	759.79043	11:00 ET	11:00 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 760.40
Low: 757.75
Best point (MFE): +0.03%
Worst point (MAE): −0.32%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 758.06 at 10:30 ET
Exit: 759.80 at 11:00 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: +0.1%
The rule's trades that day: 4

side: −1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 660
entry_min: 630

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:07
leverage: 3.0204444029619943
open.note: SPY: open 761.38, previous close 769.36, leverage 3.02, 93 shares a leg
open.open: 761.38
open.event: open
prev_close: 769.36
open.shares: 93
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0011947722967728233
open.leverage: 3.0204444029619943
open.prev_close: 769.36