Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Oct 22, 2026, closed Oct 22, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: short
Exposure: short
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 22, 2026
Closed: Oct 22, 2026
Quantity: 100
Entry price: 763.705201
Exit price: 763.11
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $47,143.68

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $76,370.52
Exit value: $76,311.00
P&L: +$59.52
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.40
Net P&L: +$58.12
Return: +0.08%
Of the book: +12.6 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 30 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 22, 2026	13:00 ET	sell	100	100	763.705201	763.72	—	+0.2 bp	—	—	short in: 763.72 < band 763.98	8 trigger numbers at 13:00 lb 763.9802287681523 px 763.72 ub 775.500726204874 pos −1 vwap 764.379801391526 reason short in: 763.72 < band 763.98 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 22, 2026	13:30 ET	buy	100	100	763.11	763.38	—	−3.5 bp	—	signal	short out: 763.38 > min(band 763.29, VWAP 764.30)	8 trigger numbers at 13:30 lb 763.2935595458254 px 763.38 ub 776.1934165621278 pos 0 vwap 764.3033489623066 reason short out: 763.38 > min(band 763.29, VWAP 764.30) symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	sell	market	100	—	763.72	filled	100	763.705201	13:00 ET	13:00 ET
exit	buy	market	100	—	763.38	filled	100	763.11	13:30 ET	13:30 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 763.85
Low: 762.16
Best point (MFE): +0.20%
Worst point (MAE): −0.02%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 763.75 at 13:00 ET
Exit: 763.295 at 13:30 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: +0.2%
The rule's trades that day: 4

side: −1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 810
entry_min: 780

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:04
leverage: 3.2774716427213284
open.note: SPY: open 766.37, previous close 773.09, leverage 3.28, 100 shares a leg
open.open: 766.37
open.event: open
prev_close: 773.09
open.shares: 100
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0011745851867143561
open.leverage: 3.2774716427213284
open.prev_close: 773.09