Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Oct 21, 2026, closed Oct 21, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: long
Exposure: long
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 21, 2026
Closed: Oct 21, 2026
Quantity: 103
Entry price: 774.29
Exit price: 771.71
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $47,656.78

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $79,751.87
Exit value: $79,486.13
P&L: −$265.74
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.44
Net P&L: −$267.18
Return: −0.33%
Of the book: −55.8 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 30.1 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 21, 2026	14:30 ET	buy	103	103	774.29	774.26	—	+0.4 bp	—	—	long in: 774.26 > band 774.11	8 trigger numbers at 14:30 lb 766.1244984795198 px 774.26 ub 774.1136041383055 pos 1 vwap 771.83917952848 reason long in: 774.26 > band 774.11 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 21, 2026	15:00 ET	sell	103	103	771.71	772.08	—	+4.8 bp	—	signal	long out: 772.08 < max(band 774.34, VWAP 772.09)	8 trigger numbers at 15:00 lb 765.8990580192805 px 772.08 ub 774.339668989911 pos 0 vwap 772.0935336406853 reason long out: 772.08 < max(band 774.34, VWAP 772.09) symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	buy	market	103	—	774.26	filled	103	774.29	14:30 ET	14:30 ET
exit	sell	market	103	—	772.08	filled	103	771.71	15:00 ET	15:00 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 774.38
Low: 771.55
Best point (MFE): +0.01%
Worst point (MAE): −0.35%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 774.29 at 14:30 ET
Exit: 772.08 at 15:00 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: −1.0%
The rule's trades that day: 4

side: 1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 900
entry_min: 870

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:06
leverage: 3.3447692115417262
open.note: SPY: open 771.18, previous close 769.05, leverage 3.34, 103 shares a leg
open.open: 771.18
open.event: open
prev_close: 769.05
open.shares: 103
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0012909019428251703
open.leverage: 3.3447692115417262
open.prev_close: 769.05