Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

SPY · Noise area

Opened Oct 19, 2026, closed Oct 19, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Side: long
Exposure: long
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 19, 2026
Closed: Oct 19, 2026
Quantity: 106
Entry price: 769.95
Exit price: 769.352264
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $48,062.05

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $81,614.70
Exit value: $81,551.34
P&L: −$63.36
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $1.48
Net P&L: −$64.84
Return: −0.08%
Of the book: −13.2 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 30.1 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 19, 2026	11:30 ET	buy	106	106	769.95	769.98	—	−0.4 bp	—	—	long in: 769.98 > band 769.66	8 trigger numbers at 11:30 lb 760.8283739668283 px 769.98 ub 769.6642537064268 pos 1 vwap 767.9773206791315 reason long in: 769.98 > band 769.66 symbol SPY 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 19, 2026	12:00 ET	sell	106	106	769.352264	769.39	—	+0.5 bp	—	signal	long out: 769.39 < max(band 769.66, VWAP 768.19)	8 trigger numbers at 12:00 lb 760.8327652554098 px 769.39 ub 769.659839519282 pos 0 vwap 768.1881061472594 reason long out: 769.39 < max(band 769.66, VWAP 768.19) symbol SPY 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	buy	market	106	—	769.98	filled	106	769.95	11:30 ET	11:30 ET
exit	sell	market	106	—	769.39	filled	106	769.352264	12:00 ET	12:00 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 770.46
Low: 769.07
Best point (MFE): +0.07%
Worst point (MAE): −0.11%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 769.90 at 11:30 ET
Exit: 769.45 at 12:00 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: −0.4%
The rule's trades that day: 2

side: 1
symbol: SPY
exit_min: 720
entry_min: 690

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:05
leverage: 3.4069767322557802
open.note: SPY: open 767.23, previous close 763.25, leverage 3.41, 106 shares a leg
open.open: 767.23
open.event: open
prev_close: 763.25
open.shares: 106
open.symbol: SPY
sigma_10:00: 0.0013760050658402911
open.leverage: 3.4069767322557802
open.prev_close: 763.25