Paper trading, not investment advice. Every account and book on these pages trades paper money: the Alpaca paper accounts DAILY ($1,000,000 from Sep 30, 2026), INTRA1 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026) and INTRA2 ($100,000 from Sep 30, 2026); the simulated books SIM-TT ($100,000 from Sep 29, 2026), SIM-V2B ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026) and SIM-V2B-TOM ($100,000 from Sep 28, 2026), filled at the official close; and market-analysis's ledgers, one contract per position against a $100,000 reporting equity. No real money is at stake. Positions, trades and P&L are published the same day, as the engines record them, with each number's source and cost model labelled. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and nothing is tailored to you. Each strategy is a pre-registered experiment, read once on a date or at a trade count fixed in advance; until then its record says little either way. I may hold or have held positions in securities shown here. Markets can and do lose money.

Trade

QQQ · Noise area

Opened Oct 23, 2026, closed Oct 23, 2026, in INTRA2.

The trade

Account: INTRA2
Strategy: Noise area
Book: noise
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Side: long
Exposure: long
Status: closed
Opened: Oct 23, 2026
Closed: Oct 23, 2026
Quantity: 51
Entry price: 708.523922
Exit price: 706.70
Exit by: signal
Book value at entry: $47,224.43

Record Trade journal

Cost model

Alpaca paper fills, with no commission; Alpaca's SEC and CAT fees, charged by the day, are left out. Commission is estimated at $0.007 a share a side, the rate at the owner's own broker: the net P&L is the P&L less it; the P&L, the return, the P&L in basis points of the book and the R multiple are before it. The rule book's day return is the rule's own replay on SIP bars, after the research's own costs: $0.0035 a share a side in commission for the noise area and $0.007 for the other rules, and a cent a share of slippage on every fill except a resting limit order's and the noise area's exit at the close.

Result

Entry value: $36,134.72
Exit value: $36,041.70
P&L: −$93.02
Dividends: —
P&L with dividends: —
Costs: $0.71
Net P&L: −$93.73
Return: −0.26%
Of the book: −19.7 bp
R multiple: —
Held: 30 minutes

Entry and exit

Role	Date	At (ET)	Side	Qty	Asked	Price	Rule's price	Close	Slippage	Against the close	How	Why	The rule's numbers
entry	Oct 23, 2026	12:00 ET	buy	51	51	708.523922	708.58	—	−0.8 bp	—	—	long in: 708.58 > band 708.14	8 trigger numbers at 12:00 lb 698.5453464856894 px 708.58 ub 708.1354698899121 pos 1 vwap 705.490634503059 reason long in: 708.58 > band 708.14 symbol QQQ 1 number fills 1
exit	Oct 23, 2026	12:30 ET	sell	51	51	706.70	706.59	—	−1.6 bp	—	signal	long out: 706.59 < max(band 707.85, VWAP 705.61)	8 trigger numbers at 12:30 lb 698.8254886892406 px 706.59 ub 707.8544216711939 pos 0 vwap 705.6106146690827 reason long out: 706.59 < max(band 707.85, VWAP 705.61) symbol QQQ 1 number fills 1

Orders

Role	Side	Kind	Qty	Limit	Model price	Status	Filled	Average	Sent (ET)	Filled (ET)
entry	buy	market	51	—	708.58	filled	51	708.523922	12:00 ET	12:00 ET
exit	sell	market	51	—	706.59	filled	51	706.70	12:30 ET	12:30 ET

Path while held

Span: 31 minutes
High: 708.81
Low: 706.40
Best point (MFE): +0.04%
Worst point (MAE): −0.30%
Bars from: SIP 1-minute bars

The rule's own trade

The rule replayed on its own bars, beside the account's fills.

Matched the account: yes
Entry: 708.55 at 12:00 ET
Exit: 706.57 at 12:30 ET
Exit by: —
The rule's day: −0.3%
The rule's trades that day: 2

side: 1
symbol: QQQ
exit_min: 750
entry_min: 720

Notes

the noise-area rule on SPY and QQQ: checks on the half hour 10:00-15:30, out at the close

inputs

open.at: 10:00:05
leverage: 1.540037391543492
open.note: QQQ: open 702.20, previous close 704.47, leverage 1.54, 51 shares a leg
open.open: 702.199
open.event: open
prev_close: 704.47
open.shares: 51
open.symbol: QQQ
sigma_10:00: 0.0024405585403902063
open.leverage: 1.540037391543492
open.prev_close: 704.47